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midtskogen
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Russia-Ukraine war

01 Mar 2022 03:20

What next in Ukraine?

A week ago I expected that Russia would recognise the independence of the pro-Russian regions of Ukraine, and that way send troops into the regions as peace keepers to dodge accusations of an invasion, and keep the evident threat of a full-scale invasion in their sleeve.  But as we know, they pretty much went for the full-scale invasion approach.   Russians don't like to be told what to do or not, but still surprising that they went for this approach right away.

Now the operation seems poorly calculated.  Maybe they thought that they could take the capital Taliban-like with little resistance, and the troops seem poorly equipped and organised.  When there is a bad atmosphere for presenting less than optimistic views for the leadership, this is plausible.  Also, I wonder about the morale of the soldiers, who are likely too young to get impressed by Putin's history lessons.  I fear that the miscalculation will make Russia to bring heavier weapons into the game.  That will become ugly.

This is much a war over eastern vs western influence.  Russia has seen the the political and military influence of Europe and the US creeping towards and into their domain, but, ironically, Russia's actions to prevent Ukraine into falling into the West only seem to speed up the process with more and more Ukrainians becoming positive about NATO and the EU.  It was not so much so a decade ago, I think.  And less willingness in the West to accept Ukraine.  Now the sympathy favours Ukraine, despite the country's internal problems and political mess.

Russia is facing massive sanctions from the West.  I don't think this will impress the Russian leadership much.  Again, Russians don't like to be told what to do.  More subtle ways would be better.  Also, the sanctions will hit Russian citizens randomly who have nothing to do with this conflict.
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 00:47

FWIW I am hearing of a lot of racism/bigotry coming out of Ukraine, for example journalists and even government officials talking about how this matters more because unlike Afghanistan and Iraq we are talking about "white" lives.  I honestly am not going to take sides here, I don't see either side as particularly "good."
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 02:22

FWIW I am hearing of a lot of racism/bigotry coming out of Ukraine, for example journalists and even government officials talking about how this matters more because unlike Afghanistan and Iraq we are talking about "white" lives. 
This is Europe and closer geographically, culturally, linguistically, etc., to these countries than Afghanistan and Iraq.  Racism?  Well, perhaps a stretch.  Bigotry?  You can say that.

I miss a focus on diplomatic solutions from both journalists and governments.  That is bad.  I only see this de-escalating through one way: Both NATO and Ukraine must utterly dismiss the idea of Ukranian membership.  For NATO it's not that important, and for Ukraine it's not worth it.  Rather let Ukraine aspire for EU membership if they must.  This NATO thing is to Russia like what the Cuban missile crisis was to the US.  With Ukrainian NATO membership Russia foresees NATO missile bases and whatnot in Crimea and other places, and there is no way Russia is going to let that possibility happen, like the US would not let Soviet missile bases happen in Cuba.  Crimea would perhaps be like Florida and the rest of Ukraine like Cuba and in a sense worse than the Cuba crisis.  This is a very serious situation, but it can be fixed by resolutions and signatures.  Yes, there are political and ethnic differences within Ukraine, but those are manageable, at least compared to the current situation.

The need for a diplomatic solution is urgent.  Russian progress isn't slow because Russian forces are incapable of running over Ukrainian resistance.  Russia wants to change the Ukrainian government but would of course like to do that without destroying the country.  Light troops facing little resistance would do that doing relatively little damage, so that's what they tried first rather than going all in US shock and awe style.  That failing, it can get worse, much worse.   I'm not saying that a country getting invaded shouldn't resist a bigger force.  Now, however, is a critical time for finding a diplomatic solution, before the country gets destroyed which is in no one's interest.
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 04:01

FWIW I am hearing of a lot of racism/bigotry coming out of Ukraine, for example journalists and even government officials talking about how this matters more because unlike Afghanistan and Iraq we are talking about "white" lives. 
This is Europe and closer geographically, culturally, linguistically, etc., to these countries than Afghanistan and Iraq.  Racism?  Well, perhaps a stretch.  Bigotry?  You can say that.

I miss a focus on diplomatic solutions from both journalists and governments.  That is bad.  I only see this de-escalating through one way: Both NATO and Ukraine must utterly dismiss the idea of Ukranian membership.  For NATO it's not that important, and for Ukraine it's not worth it.  Rather let Ukraine aspire for EU membership if they must.  This NATO thing is to Russia like what the Cuban missile crisis was to the US.  With Ukrainian NATO membership Russia foresees NATO missile bases and whatnot in Crimea and other places, and there is no way Russia is going to let that possibility happen, like the US would not let Soviet missile bases happen in Cuba.  Crimea would perhaps be like Florida and the rest of Ukraine like Cuba and in a sense worse than the Cuba crisis.  This is a very serious situation, but it can be fixed by resolutions and signatures.  Yes, there are political and ethnic differences within Ukraine, but those are manageable, at least compared to the current situation.

The need for a diplomatic solution is urgent.  Russian progress isn't slow because Russian forces are incapable of running over Ukrainian resistance.  Russia wants to change the Ukrainian government but would of course like to do that without destroying the country.  Light troops facing little resistance would do that doing relatively little damage, so that's what they tried first rather than going all in US shock and awe style.  That failing, it can get worse, much worse.   I'm not saying that a country getting invaded shouldn't resist a bigger force.  Now, however, is a critical time for finding a diplomatic solution, before the country gets destroyed which is in no one's interest.
You read my mind!  Did you watch Thirteen Days? It was about how masterful the Kennedys were in resolving it and how much the American military industrial complex hated them for it and no coincidence that they were both assassinated.....
Also I think Ukraine has now been accepted into the EU.
This is the quote from JFK's famous speech and note what everyone said about his assassination being a coup, there is so much evidence for this, and it's funny how much information about it still remains classified.

https://www.irishamerica.com/2001/04/film-forum-jfk-vs-the-joint-chiefs-in-thirteen-days/#:~:text=Part of that speech is,but peace in all time.

 
Kennedy’s most eloquent statement on the danger of nuclear war was his speech at American University in Washington on June 10, 1963, which Khrushchev described as the greatest speech ever given by an American president. Part of that speech is played over the ending of Thirteen Days: “What kind of a peace do we seek? I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living. Not merely peace in our time, but peace in all time. Our problems are man-made; therefore they can be solved by man…. For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s futures. And we are all mortal.”
Khrushchev was equally eloquent when he reflected to Norman Cousins shortly after the crisis, “What good would it have done me in the last hour of my life to know that though our great nation and the United States were in complete ruins, the national honor of the Soviet Union was intact.?”
Both leaders paid dearly for their principled restraint. Khrushchev was deposed by his Presidium colleagues in October 1964, eleven months after Kennedy was murdered. Indira Gandhi observed, “Kennedy died because he lost the support of his peers.” Those who continue to believe that a coup d’état can’t happen in this country are ignoring not only the truth about November 1963 but also the events surrounding our last presidential election. ♦
 
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midtskogen
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 04:42

 Did you watch Thirteen Days?
No, never heard of.
Also I think Ukraine has now been accepted into the EU.
No, an application was signed.  Becoming a member is a long process and Ukraine, besides being in a war, is a long way from membership.  And a membership will mean that trade across the Ukrainian-Russian border will be burdened with tolls and restrictions, but those relations are already in trouble now anyway.
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 17:06

You should watch Thirteen Days if you can, it is based right off the Kennedy Tapes and shows how precarious the situation was in 1962 and how much the military was against the Kennedys and by the time it ended they were also planning to launch a war in SE Asia behind his back.  Of course we know how bad of a decision starting a war in Vietnam turned out to be and had JFK not died it probably would not have happened.
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

02 Mar 2022 19:15

This article in the LA TIMES is being praised as the best to date about the racism/bigotry of the media in comparisons of the conflict in Europe vs what happens in the Middle East

https://twitter.com/i/events/1499038820221603843




Looks like some bad decisions being made by Zelensky to empower the far right neo nazis.
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

03 Mar 2022 00:31

This article in the LA TIMES is being praised as the best to date about the racism/bigotry of the media in comparisons of the conflict in Europe vs what happens in the Middle East
War has always been an "us vs. them" thing and blamed on "them" because if they'd been more like us, the war could have been avoided.  Journalists hardly ever attempt to be neutral.  So the more remote and less like "us", the less sympathy with "them".  Humans as social mammals are programmed that way.  Which isn't to say that war is ok, but this insight can be helpful.  I don't think it's so much a race thing.  The key is difference, mainly cultural differences and identity.  When cultural differences follow ethnic divisions, you could perhaps make race a point, but I think it goes deeper.
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Russia-Ukraine war

03 Mar 2022 02:46

This article in the LA TIMES is being praised as the best to date about the racism/bigotry of the media in comparisons of the conflict in Europe vs what happens in the Middle East
War has always been an "us vs. them" thing and blamed on "them" because if they'd been more like us, the war could have been avoided.  Journalists hardly ever attempt to be neutral.  So the more remote and less like "us", the less sympathy with "them".  Humans as social mammals are programmed that way.  Which isn't to say that war is ok, but this insight can be helpful.  I don't think it's so much a race thing.  The key is difference, mainly cultural differences and identity.  When cultural differences follow ethnic divisions, you could perhaps make race a point, but I think it goes deeper.
Yes and the term race itself exactly accurate because scientifically speaking there is no such thing as race (because variations between a population are greater than variations between two populations) so it's much more about cultural divisions and people viewing those who are different from them in some minor way as "the other."  Journalists and political leaders are not immune to this of course- they are just a reflection of the societies and cultures they exist within.
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

03 Mar 2022 18:52

Does anyone ever remember that one episode of The Simpsons where Homer joins the Navy and captains a submarine? During the episode Homer pilots the submarine into Russian waters, and it turned out that the Soviet Union has never dissolved. There is even a brief sequence where the Berlin Wall comes back up again and Vladimir Lenin suddenly comes back to life and starts terrorizing the tourists visiting his tomb.
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

03 Mar 2022 23:54

Does anyone ever remember that one episode of The Simpsons where Homer joins the Navy and captains a submarine? During the episode Homer pilots the submarine into Russian waters, and it turned out that the Soviet Union has never dissolved. There is even a brief sequence where the Berlin Wall comes back up again and Vladimir Lenin suddenly comes back to life and starts terrorizing the tourists visiting his tomb.
A video clip of that from nine years ago recently resurfaced in my YouTube suggestions, along with the Onion piece where Putin discovers a plot by Putin to assassinate Putin. Really, expect anything satirical about Russia to start getting passed around again.
 
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Russia-Ukraine war

05 Mar 2022 00:36

I thought this was a thread to ask this little question: 

Does the sanctions package against Russia affect's the simulators' development and funding? It will be stoped by a indefinite time?

I don't want to speak about my politic side because... This forum wasn't made to make a discution about politics or any war, it was made exclusively for Space Engine simulation and some other scientific topics, not to say If NATO or USA are blame for the Russian Invasion to Ukraine or if Putin will be the next Hitler or whatever the hell the world's mind want's to believe.
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Russia-Ukraine war

05 Mar 2022 00:39

Does anyone ever remember that one episode of The Simpsons where Homer joins the Navy and captains a submarine? During the episode Homer pilots the submarine into Russian waters, and it turned out that the Soviet Union has never dissolved. There is even a brief sequence where the Berlin Wall comes back up again and Vladimir Lenin suddenly comes back to life and starts terrorizing the tourists visiting his tomb.
I have saw this clip a couple of times, but I don't believe that Putin's actions will be bypassed after an possible victory against Ukraine. 
For making this sh*t worst, if the 3rd world war begins, my country will be an ally of Russia loln't this f*ck*ng sucks.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine war

14 Mar 2022 10:24

Worth a watch about the sanctions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV_4M9R8Ggs

I think Russia can hold out for more than a few months, but in the longer run Russia is going to rot technologically and/or end up in the pocket of China.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine war

24 May 2022 08:25

There is a funny Chinese song written by a Chinese netizen: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1SF411V74b 硬汉普京 (Tough guy Putin). The Chinese people's evaluation of Putin is generally positive, as well as me.
The lyric (use translate):
战斗的民族有一位英雄,现在已经是七十高龄。他为了国家前途命运,独自抵抗着西方鬼魂。智慧与胆魂聚集一身,上任三个月一鸣惊人。二十年从政雷厉风行,一直压制着北约东进。他有一颗正义之心啊,一直被民众拥护至今。中俄的友谊铭记于心,共同去维护世界和平!
Of course, it is wrong for Russia to wage Ukraine War, that is intrusion, and Putin said the Azov Camp is making Nazism needs more and more evidence to prove, the solder that killed a sixty-year-old man is terrible. But is Nato good guy? 20 years ago, when Putin took office, he wants good relationship between Russia, western and eastern country, even join Nato is not impossible, as he said. But western countries keep isolate Russia, then Russia has to make a good relationship with China, and expansion eastwards, so who was at fault first? Now the Russian-Ukraine war is like big fish eats medium fish, and medium fish eats small fish. The big fish is Nato, the medium fish is Russia and the small fish is Ukraine. Ukrainians know medium fish is eating them, but they don't know that is because of the big fish! Ukrainians are very sympathetic, they are defending a fish that has been eating by another fish. Russians are not easy, because they are defending the world's strongest fish, and at the same time they have to eat the small fish under the pressure of western public opinion! So I remain neutral. That's why the Chinese government is giving Ukraine aid while exposing NATO's atrocities.

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