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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Dec 2021 04:51

It feels like Spring 2020 again but hopefully this surge going on doesn't last that long.  Maybe just a week or two.  I hope that's good reasoning too, considering we seem to have had a Thanksgiving surge and this seems to be mostly Delta related (although there are about 13% Omicron cases from what I remember.)
It's actually better if the wave lasts a longer time, since that means less overflow of hospital surge capacity. If all the Omicron infections happen in just a couple of weeks, then yes the wave is over quicker, but the peak is incredibly high, and the health care system gets crushed. 

New York City saw a taste of this in spring 2020, and even that was a mitigated spike -- it was slowed down and reversed before the full spike could happen.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Dec 2021 05:10

 It feels like Spring 2020 again
For what it's worth, the situation in Norway is already worse than spring 2020 by all metrics, despite a very high vaccination percentage.  The main difference, perhaps, is that we know that the mortality rate is low.  Back in 2020 we didn't know whether it was 0.1%, 1% or 5%.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Dec 2021 05:27

It feels like Spring 2020 again but hopefully this surge going on doesn't last that long.  Maybe just a week or two.  I hope that's good reasoning too, considering we seem to have had a Thanksgiving surge and this seems to be mostly Delta related (although there are about 13% Omicron cases from what I remember.)
It's actually better if the wave lasts a longer time, since that means less overflow of hospital surge capacity. If all the Omicron infections happen in just a couple of weeks, then yes the wave is over quicker, but the peak is incredibly high, and the health care system gets crushed. 

New York City saw a taste of this in spring 2020, and even that was a mitigated spike -- it was slowed down and reversed before the full spike could happen.
Wat I edited my post after I read the articles and they are saying that they think it will be worse here than it was in South Africa because we have both Delta and Omicron at the same time while South Africa was mostly done with Delta when Omicron came in, do you think that's accurate?  They are talking about this crushing the hospital system even if it's less serious just from sheer numbers.  It's doubling every 4 days and spread around the world in 2 weeks.

One other thought I had which I wanted to run by you, is that with these quickly rising infection rates and case numbers does that increase the chances of that merge of Delta and Omicron variants we discussed before and also if such a merge indeed occurs, could a worst case scenario verify, a variant that has the mortality rate of Delta combined with the infection rate of Omicron?  I feel that mutation rates involving two variants exchanging genetic material would be less random than a variant mutating by itself and the chances of a variant emerging that was both more infectious and more deadly would be higher with the sharing of genetic material between two such variants.....thoughts?
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Dec 2021 05:30

 It feels like Spring 2020 again
For what it's worth, the situation in Norway is already worse than spring 2020 by all metrics, despite a very high vaccination percentage.  The main difference, perhaps, is that we know that the mortality rate is low.  Back in 2020 we didn't know whether it was 0.1%, 1% or 5%.
Yes I hope that the sheer numbers do not overwhelm the hospitals like they did back then.  But we were much less prepared for it then and the good news is we also will have a drug approved by the end of the year to treat it at a 90% level of effectiveness.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Dec 2021 10:13

I hope that the sheer numbers do not overwhelm the hospitals like they did back then.
We currently have 383 hospitalised, of which 118 on intensive care, with 5-6000 new cases daily and rising, all numbers higher than at any time during the pandemic.  But for a country with a population of 5.4 million, it's a bit sad that these numbers push the capacity.  Most scheduled (non-covid) operations are now getting postponed, and that might have a bad toll.  But that wont be shown in the covid stats.  This is a result of decades of incompetent hospital management, mostly occupied with pointless organisation changes and creating new administration and management positions.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

18 Dec 2021 20:42

The nearly vertical spikes of new cases characteristic of Omicron reaching dominance are showing up more and more around the world. The Netherlands have gone into lockdown. Probably a wise move. Expect more countries will be imposing much heavier restrictions soon as well.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

19 Dec 2021 03:35

The nearly vertical spikes of new cases characteristic of Omicron reaching dominance
It's worth noting that the plot is using a 7 day average so it doesn't even show that the numbers double every 1.5 days in significant parts of England.

Whilst shops are open as usual here (except bars, pubs and night clubs, which have not formally been shut down, but they are no longer allowed to serve alcohol, so few bother to stay open), it's interesting to note that since last year the online shopping experience has improved.  I have now done most of the shopping for Christmas online, and even the things that I physically picked up in stores, I mostly found online first.  I don't think many will go back to the old way of shopping after the pandemic.

With a holiday break for schools and many businesses I expect omicron to slow down here.  I think the schools and the exemption from quarantine and short isolation period for school children have been major drivers for the current wave here.  It's clearly been an unofficial policy to achieve natural herd immunity in the <16 year group who are not fully eligible for the vaccines, based on that children rarely get worse symptoms than a common cold and their fully vaccinated parents rarely worse than a flu.  And going forward the idea is that a booster will give similar protection for the 65+ groups which is now almost complete and peak protection should coincide with the schools reopening after the holiday break beginning next week.  The school goes on holiday break in two days on Wednesday, but many schools went digital Friday because too many teachers are ill or in isolation. They wont put it this way, but it is clearly the plan nevertheless.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Dec 2021 14:56

Improving evidence that Omicron does tend to cause milder illness (on average) than earlier variants. The wave in South Africa seems to have peaked and is currently on a rapid decline, and enough time has gone by to expect to start seeing the delayed rise in deaths. If we calculate the case fatality rate (using number of deaths divided by number of cases when they tested positive), it appears to be almost an order of magnitude lower than during their summer Delta wave.

Image
Data source: Worldometers
  
The result depends on how long the lag between cases and deaths actually is. Here I assumed 13 days which gives a pretty good fit and is consistent with what we know about how long it takes to get symptoms and test positive vs. the period from infection to death. If the lag is shorter, then the CFR will also be lower, or the CFR is higher if the lag is longer. (E.g. latest value is 0.30% if lag is 10 days, or 0.46% if lag is 16 days). And the peak of the curve for deaths has not happened yet, so these numbers can still change. Despite such uncertainties, the difference between now and the Delta wave does seem significant.

Other outstanding questions remain: how much of this reduction is intrinsic to Omicron itself, vs. the increased vaccination and recovery from prior variants? All we can safely say is that it is some combination of both, and these vary for different countries. Changes in testing could skew the results as well, though by this point in the pandemic I doubt that plays as much of a role. How large the impact will be to hospitals may also vary.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Dec 2021 15:48

Improving evidence that Omicron does tend to cause milder illness (on average) than earlier variants.
On the other hand, some studies now find no evidence for this, depending on how it is measured.  British study (but a more recent study found omicron slightly milder). And in Denmark they see fewer hospitalisations with omicron, but: "It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease".

Norway now has about 5000 confirmed cases of omicron (due to limited testing for the variant, the real number is probably at least twice), and one hospital admission due to omicron so far, so limited data.

Given that we can't yet confirm for sure that omicron gives a milder disease, but we do know that it is good at evading the vaccines and to some degree also past infections, it's safe to assume that the risk of overloading hospitals has increased significantly.


I got an invitation yesterday to book a booster dose, but I could only pick slots between 3 and 12 January.  I have a doctor appointment on the 5th which I might not be fit for if the booster is like the second dose, and I'm abroad between the 6th and 10th, so I called to hear if I could get it earlier, reasoning that Christmas would not be popular for many, but actually better for me, since the booster could actually be useful before doing air travel, but no luck even though they offer drop-in for the age group above mine... They prefer that I get it on the 12th coming straight from the European epicentre (Czechia).  Oh well, I can't rush, they say, so I wont rush.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Dec 2021 15:58

Given that we can't yet confirm for sure that omicron gives a milder disease, but we do know that it is good at evading the vaccines and to some degree also past infections, it's safe to assume that the risk of overloading hospitals has increased significantly.
I think so too. Even if it is a few times more mild than Delta, spreading so rapidly could have a bigger impact. But it's a much better situation than spreading this fast and being more severe, or even equally severe but no real protection from vaccines or recovery. If that were the case, I more easily imagine more countries going into strict lockdowns.

In the US we have had one known death connected to Omicron thus far. A man in his 50s who was unvaccinated and with other underlying health issues. Very little data otherwise in the US to judge the disease severity. But the surges now seen in multiple cities are alarmingly fast.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Dec 2021 04:37

Given that we can't yet confirm for sure that omicron gives a milder disease, but we do know that it is good at evading the vaccines and to some degree also past infections, it's safe to assume that the risk of overloading hospitals has increased significantly.
I think so too. Even if it is a few times more mild than Delta, spreading so rapidly could have a bigger impact. But it's a much better situation than spreading this fast and being more severe, or even equally severe but no real protection from vaccines or recovery. If that were the case, I more easily imagine more countries going into strict lockdowns.

In the US we have had one known death connected to Omicron thus far. A man in his 50s who was unvaccinated and with other underlying health issues. Very little data otherwise in the US to judge the disease severity. But the surges now seen in multiple cities are alarmingly fast.
Wat are you noticing how quickly this thing is spreading in NY and NJ?  Do you think this might be a good thing as it looks like it's already replacing Delta and is much milder than Delta (50x-75x)?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Dec 2021 04:39

Improving evidence that Omicron does tend to cause milder illness (on average) than earlier variants.
On the other hand, some studies now find no evidence for this, depending on how it is measured.  British study (but a more recent study found omicron slightly milder). And in Denmark they see fewer hospitalisations with omicron, but: "It is primarily young and vaccinated people who are infected with Omicron, and when we adjust for this, we see no evidence that Omicron should result in milder disease".

Norway now has about 5000 confirmed cases of omicron (due to limited testing for the variant, the real number is probably at least twice), and one hospital admission due to omicron so far, so limited data.

Given that we can't yet confirm for sure that omicron gives a milder disease, but we do know that it is good at evading the vaccines and to some degree also past infections, it's safe to assume that the risk of overloading hospitals has increased significantly.


I got an invitation yesterday to book a booster dose, but I could only pick slots between 3 and 12 January.  I have a doctor appointment on the 5th which I might not be fit for if the booster is like the second dose, and I'm abroad between the 6th and 10th, so I called to hear if I could get it earlier, reasoning that Christmas would not be popular for many, but actually better for me, since the booster could actually be useful before doing air travel, but no luck even though they offer drop-in for the age group above mine... They prefer that I get it on the 12th coming straight from the European epicentre (Czechia).  Oh well, I can't rush, they say, so I wont rush.
Get ready for a fourth dose (2nd booster) as those are happening in Israel already and looks like the US will be headed there too at some point next year.  Make sure you have room on your calendar for booster shots every few months.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Dec 2021 04:42

I hope that the sheer numbers do not overwhelm the hospitals like they did back then.
We currently have 383 hospitalised, of which 118 on intensive care, with 5-6000 new cases daily and rising, all numbers higher than at any time during the pandemic.  But for a country with a population of 5.4 million, it's a bit sad that these numbers push the capacity.  Most scheduled (non-covid) operations are now getting postponed, and that might have a bad toll.  But that wont be shown in the covid stats.  This is a result of decades of incompetent hospital management, mostly occupied with pointless organisation changes and creating new administration and management positions.
Sounds like a bureaucratic mess!  We have that here in the US too.  Also some inflated prices at hospitals because of corporate mismanagement (like charging $10 per pill for Tylenol!)
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Dec 2021 14:40

We have that here in the US too.  Also some inflated prices at hospitals because of corporate mismanagement
I'm not sure what is going on in the US, but medical care seems broken by health insurance and a broken bidding process, which has inflated prices and allowed inefficient management.  I recently read that an unlucky guy was charged something like $4000 for a covid test, which he was asked to take, but he was charged because he accidentally went to the wrong counter, the emergency department instead of the place in the same hospital where tests are free.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Dec 2021 21:37

We have that here in the US too.  Also some inflated prices at hospitals because of corporate mismanagement
I'm not sure what is going on in the US, but medical care seems broken by health insurance and a broken bidding process, which has inflated prices and allowed inefficient management.  I recently read that an unlucky guy was charged something like $4000 for a covid test, which he was asked to take, but he was charged because he accidentally went to the wrong counter, the emergency department instead of the place in the same hospital where tests are free.
That happened here in NY too!  That charge is unbelievable, there is no reason for a $4000 charge, none at all.

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