That is actually asked implicitly in the poll. Think of the logic in the first three questions, and what it would mean for example if your response to A1 is greater than for B1.
That is actually asked implicitly in the poll. Think of the logic in the first three questions, and what it would mean for example if your response to A1 is greater than for B1.
Roy, the idea here is not to have an accurate representation of what each one of us thinks really but to have a Jelly Beans in a Jar kind of poll, a crowd wisdom about a topic with no current scientific consensus. Your specific answer is not the point I care about, this is not an exam, the important thing is to place an average and dispersion of the answers to gain some taste about the overall consensus here and how strong could it be. None of us will be right and the vast majority of us will be farther away than the average estimate, but again, we want to know that, the general view, not yours. This implies we need lots of "Jelly Beans in the Jar", the essence of the poll is precisely to have you choose between a large number of possibilities, so much that you have to guess rather than convey a rigorous argument (there are really none which could make a good point with current evidence on the matter). If I showed you a jar with 4 jelly beans then your personal estimate would be easier to make but we wouldn't get any interesting information about the general perception since one or two points (one jelly bean above or below) would make the results fluctuate a lot.
Your specific question is same for me. Because you ask people a thing they don't know, giving them 20 points they can't consciously operate. In the end you will collect some data and it will be totally random, unreliable and no one will really like it. This will be a picture of how pop-culture taught people to think and they have no knowledge, they have Star Wars and reptilian conspiracy stuff instead.
This is exactly what I'm trying to learn here. What people (with their socio-cultural context) expect. You don't need to express yourself in such a pretentious way. No person here thinks this is a poll to discover what the real answer to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence is. This is only to understand how optimistic and pessimistic people is.
You should really learn about some important ideas here. I'm not saying "the masses" are smart (even if you are categorically telling us that they are stupid), I'm saying that in some circumstances individual guesses amount for interesting average data that can reveal how people think about a topic, like in the case of the "Jelly beans in a Jar" experiment. I don't expect anyone to answer correctly (in fact no one will, unless by chance). I want to know how people adjusts their ideas around this with all their influences and what can we learn about those influences.
Roy, if you don't care about the poll why are you even here? You are free to ignore this thread, you are free to create a new thread. Maybe you care too much because you don't like it for some reason that is still obscure to me. Anyway, calm down, we are more or less nice people, we like to discuss things, we are not the smartest in the world, but there's no point in joining a forum like this and overweening about everything since the beginning.
Okay. Not only did you not answer the poll's questions in the prescribed manner (which every other respondent thus far has managed to do with only a few minor errors), you also did not provide feedback which is constructive or actionable. You also use condescending language bordering on being insulting. It is toxic, unproductive, and this kind of behavior will not be tolerated here.
May be I have some reasons. Like I don't like tests and I don't like when somebody is searching the truth by asking masses and also because ridiculous answers come from them and topicstarter has to count them. And also I don't like when tests are made poorly. I see you're trying to be friendly and appreciate it, but there's at least one conceptual reason why your survey is wrong. You put the question this way: "There is or has been extraterrestrial life". But is and has been are the two different questions. Because "life has been" is actually "life is no more". Look how this works on practice: one is 25% sure that life exists, the other is 100% sure it has been but then died in entire galaxy, so he is sure that there is no extraterrestrial life. But he reads the question and gives 20 points for "has been". This way in your statistics the one who thinks the entire galaxy or universe is dead gives you more points than the one who partially believes in life. I hope you understand me now. This test is wrong, it doesn't work. And yes, this is my obscure reason. Some years ago I was working professionaly in social media and it was a nightmare of how many surveys were done like they were initially made to give wrong results. It's painful. You don't know how often I've seen over-complicated surveys with dozens of questions and answers so in the end none were understanding what they are talking about, including survey's author. You don't need 20 points for this. You need only 3:
You are making an assertion based on what what you think the questioner wants to know, rather than following the logic of the questions as they were asked and considering that, maybe, they were asked in that way for a reason.This way in your statistics the one who thinks the entire galaxy or universe is dead gives you more points than the one who partially believes in life. This way in your statistics the one who thinks the entire galaxy or universe is dead gives you more points than the one who partially believes in life. I hope you understand me now. This test is wrong, it doesn't work.
If it's too many options for your liking, you could answer with 20, 10, and 0, respectively, and not have to change anything about the poll. But not everyone has such a limited view of what their confidence level can be as you do, as evident by the responses themselves.
Wow, I went to sleep thinking this person couldn't be more upset, but as it seems she/he totally is able to lower the bar.
Wow I was just about to say this is the friendliest forum I have found on the internet and then Roy had to spoil it.Roy, okay, then you do not get to participate in this forum any further. FFT likewise asked "why are you even here?" Apparently not to have a respectful discussion with all participants. Respect is something we value at the core of our community. You do not get to raise a fuss about things you don't like about a poll and then selectively ignore the feedback you receive. If you only wanted to talk to the topic starter, you could have done it by PM.
I find this Jellybeans in a Jar concept highly intriguing. I've seen this used as a plot in solving a mystery. Give a crowd of people on the internet some clues and evidence to solve a mystery and with the assistance of crowdsourcing, each person will come up with their own ideas, which when used together may prove to be useful in solving the mystery.Roy, the idea here is not to have an accurate representation of what each one of us thinks really but to have a Jelly Beans in a Jar kind of poll, a crowd wisdom about a topic with no current scientific consensus. Your specific answer is not the point I care about, this is not an exam, the important thing is to place an average and dispersion of the answers to gain some taste about the overall consensus here and how strong could it be. None of us will be right and the vast majority of us will be farther away than the average estimate, but again, we want to know that, the general view, not yours. This implies we need lots of "Jelly Beans in the Jar", the essence of the poll is precisely to have you choose between a large number of possibilities, so much that you have to guess rather than convey a rigorous argument (there are really none which could make a good point with current evidence on the matter). If I showed you a jar with 4 jelly beans then your personal estimate would be easier to make but we wouldn't get any interesting information about the general perception since one or two points (one jelly bean above or below) would make the results fluctuate a lot.
I won't count your answer until it is made in the same format as the others. Make a bet like the rest of us if you want it to be included as an answer, please.