Since Hawking radiation is assumed to be real, I suppose that would also imply that some information from inside the black hole actually can escape
Sorry for the delay! I've been thinking more about this, but I wanted to create a few visuals to go with the explanation.
With our analogue black hole model using waves in a fluid, we get the intuition that some waves should be able to escape from on or even slightly below the horizon, if the hole is shrinking. It's a neat thing to consider. Essentially we must make a distinction between defining the horizon as "boundary from within which nothing can escape to infinity", and "boundary where flow speed exceeds signal speed", or "the Schwarzschild radius". We usually consider these all to be the same, (though the former is the closest to the technical definition used in general relativity). With evaporation, that first definition becomes slightly smaller.
However, when we apply this to a real black hole, we'll find the distinction can be 100% ignored. The math behind that claim is astonishing, and we'll go over that, too. Basically, black hole evaporation is just way too slow. But it's fun to see what this looks like if we exaggerate
the effect a whole lot, and I think it helps with understanding the apparent paradox from time dilation as something falls into a black hole, too.
First to help build visual intuition, I coded up a simple model using waves in a fluid which is flowing radially towards a drain. A particle is released into the flow, and it emits wave pulses at regular time intervals. (
Whose time? That measured by the infalling particle, which is what we build our "global observer" map from.) The speed of the waves relative to the flow is set to unity, while the fluid flow speed goes as -1/r, so there is an event horizon at a radius of r=1. W
aves are also bent by the flow, which creates an analogue to the photon orbit at 1.5 radii. A particle moving tangent to the hole at that radius can make multiple orbits. In these respects this is a quantitatively correct analogy for a black hole in general relativity.
We can see the source is drawn down to the singularity extremely quickly according to its own clock, along with all waves it emitted from beneath the horizon. Whereas if we imagine an observer stationed at the location x=4, y=0, what do they see? At first a regular set of wave pulses, but then the delay between each successive wave grows longer. At first slowly, but then suddenly. This is of course the redshift and time dilation effect.
Aside: it's interesting to see how at the moment the particle crosses the horizon, portions of every wave pulse it emitted during its plunge toward the horizon are also simultaneously crossing the horizon, in a large shell. That shell collapses down into the singularity with them. This is a neat visual effect that isn't mentioned often. It
is often said that an astronaut hovering at the photon sphere could see the back of their head. (It would be severely lensed and hard to see in practice.) But here, we're finding an astronaut falling into the hole would see an image of their own fall, the entire history seen all at once, and from everywhere on the sky, right as they met the singularity. The saying "my life flashed before my eyes" comes to mind.

However, this is not the same as saying the astronaut sees the entire history of the universe flash before them. That is a misconception of the effect of time dilation. If we think of regular light pulses from arbitrary points everywhere in the universe falling in with the astronaut, they only see a tiny subset of them, and not all at once.
Okay, let's add in the effect of black hole evaporation. For simplicity, we'll make the evaporation rate constant, and for the effect to be visible, decently fast compared to the time needed to reach the center. We'll also zoom in a little, have the source emit waves much more frequently, and only after it crosses the photon orbit.
Some observations:
1) The effective event horizon, defined as "the boundary from within which no signals can escape" is slightly smaller than "the boundary where flow speed exceeds signal speed" (the latter is the one rendered as the black dashed circle). We can see one wave pulse emitted beneath the latter boundary where parts of it manage to escape. There is even a dot on the wave pulse after that, which was very nearly stuck on the effective horizon, but fell into the singularity shortly before the end. Some dots also wrap around much of the inside of the black hole and then get saved by the evaporation.
2) The difference is hard to tell for a distant observer. They still see an extremely rapid redshifting and fadeout of the signals, just as if the horizon had the same behavior, but was slightly smaller than they expected.
What is the size of the horizon, as defined by from where no signals can escape?
It is the distance where the inward speed (due to the flow) of a radially outward-moving wave pulse is equal to the speed that the horizon is shrinking. If there is no evaporation, then this distance is where the flow speed equals the wave speed. With evaporation, if the current Schwarzschild radius is
R and is changing at the rate
R' (with
R' < 0 for evaporation), and the wave speed is
c, then this effective horizon lies at
r/R = 1/(c-R'). For example, if the horizon is shrinking at half the wave speed, then the effective horizon is 2/3 as large as the Schwarzschild radius.
What does this mean for real, astrophysical black holes?
The rate a black hole evaporates is inversely proportional to the square of its mass. The power emitted in Hawking radiation goes as
Power is energy per time, and mass is energy divided by the speed of light squared, so the rate of mass loss is the Hawking radiation power divided by c^2. Finally, the horizon radius is 2GM/c^2, so the rate it shrinks is equal to the power times 2G/c^4, or
Ignoring growth by accretion (in fact all astrophysical-sized black holes are currently growing even just by absorbing CMB photons), how fast is this for a one solar mass black hole? It comes out to 1.5x10^-72 m/s, or 5x10^-81 times the speed of light.
For the SgrA* black hole at the center of our galaxy, weighing 4 million solar masses, it works out to 9.3x10^-86 m/s, or 3.1x10^-94 of c. These are exceptionally small numbers. Plugging into our formula for the corrected event horizon size above, then for the one solar mass black hole, the difference is about 10^-77 of a meter. For bigger black holes the difference is smaller. For SgrA* it is about 10^-84 of a meter.
As a black hole evaporates away to nothing, does the effect ever become great enough to be important? Not really. Even for a black hole with a horizon the size of a proton, which weighs about 10^12 kg and is radiating so violently that nothing could even fall into it, the rate of shrinking is only about 10^-36 m/s, which still corrects the horizon size by much less than a Planck length.
It gets interesting to think of what happens when the mass gets down to about 10 micrograms, which is basically the final moment since the horizon radius is approximately the Planck length and the remaining lifetime is about the Planck time. The black hole at this point would be radiating photons with approximately the Planck temperature. I think it would be a neat coincidence if the rate of horizon shrinking was the speed of light. Alas, it's not. But it's getting there -- about 0.02% of c! I suppose it's reassuring that the rate the horizon can shrink is never faster than c, since that would raise concerns about causality.