midtskogen wrote:Whether the herd immunity is a good idea surely depends on a few factors, such as the fatality rate and how quickly vaccines become available. Even the fatality rate is hard to determine. In the case of COVID, it's hard to determine whether the virus was the direct cause of death or not, as the 70+ age group makes up the vast majority of deaths. Also, the capability of the health care system is important.
I think the Swedes were far too optimistic about when herd immunity would be achieved, but it doesn't mean that everything they did was wrong. A lot of countries are now pretty much doing what Sweden did in March: no general lockdowns.
As I've said before, we wont know what the best strategy should have been until the dust settles and the numbers are in. Then we can look at unusual death rates regardless of cause, and Sweden might still do far, far better than many countries that did lock down. It's premature to draw conclusions now, and it's even become a political issue, in particular in the US. It's worrying that social media companies delete or ban people for questioning such things as how well face masks work, as if everything is black and white. That some are so loud in their role as keepers of the Truth is itself a sign that there is much yet to be researched. I also think that there will be no simple answer to "best strategy". What works well in one country, might not work as well in different countries, and vice versa.
Herd immunity (sans vaccine) could be a few million deaths and overwhelm the hospital vaccine (at least here, where it was already overwhelmed in the early months of the pandemic.)
https://time.com/5900024/covid-19-herd- ... dangerous/
Time did a new article on Sweden in which they gave Sweden some praise on their new approach
And something on the new UK policy for the vaccine trials which allows people to get infected via spray