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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

09 Nov 2021 14:23

Here's another study indicating that being fully vaccinated offers limited protection from infected persons in the same household.  The sharp differentiation between the fully vaccinated/recovered and the rest of the population may not be well founded.

I lived 10 days with a covid positive (Delta) in a small cabin, also spent several hours in a car together, yet I was under no restrictions whatsoever as fully vaccinated and had no obligation to test myself.  Before vaccination I would have been placed in quarantine if I had happened to stay 15 minutes in the same room with a total stranger who tested positive.  A midway harmonisation would have made more sense, in my opinion.  One interpretation is that the promise of freedom vs intrusive restrictions has been used actively to persuade people into getting the vaccine.
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

09 Nov 2021 18:12

Yup. Early on the vaccines were almost astonishingly effective against infection, but now the data clearly show that type of protection diminishes dramatically with time and against Delta. This combined with more slowly diminishing effectiveness against severe illness and death was a big motivator for the push for allowing booster shots, especially for the vulnerable. As one of the other studies posted earlier suggested, even widespread use of boosters would be unlikely to halt community transmission (I'm pretty convinced that this virus is here to stay). But combined with all the other measures we have available, it helps keep things under control -- for both the rate of spread and the impacts. 

I agree on wishing restrictions on vaccinated vs. unvaccinated were more balanced and sensible. One policy that was for a while officially recommended in the US was to relax mask mandates in indoor public spaces for vaccinated but not unvaccinated individuals. This was obviously in part motivated to try to persuade more people to get vaccinated (not a good justification at all.) But it also doesn't help protect anyone (rather, it removes a layer of protection!), and is unenforceable in practice. The better policy would have been to keep masks indoors for all, and relax them outdoors (except maybe in crowds, if there have to be crowds...) And better ways to inspire people to get vaccinated are clear messaging on how the vaccines work, how they were tested, and what they do to help protect the individual and the community (while at same time not being a silver bullet).
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Nov 2021 00:08

The pandemic has been called off in Norway.  Transmission is still widespread, but the disease is no longer considered particularly dangerous.  Will it backfire?
It now appears many European countries are following suit (or are otherwise failing to prevent delta from spiking with their current level of restrictions). The new case rates are growing rapidly across them, making Europe the current global hotspot. However, the vaccination rates across these countries varies quite a bit. Perhaps the most important metric (for which I don't have data offhand) is the percentage of population vaccinated at higher ages, but otherwise as examples, according to Our World in Data, Norway has about 77% of its population with at least one dose, and 69% are fully vaccinated. In Hungary those percentages are 62% and 60%, respectively. In Croatia: just 48% and 45%. 

This may have enormous implications for the severity of the wave. I basically expect a repeat of what we saw in the US. The states that had the lowest vaccination rates and lowest restrictions peaked earlier -- at the cost of higher hospital loads and more deaths per capita.
NYC is 87% vaccinated now, is this one of the higher rates for a major city that you know of, Wat?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Nov 2021 00:10

Here's another study indicating that being fully vaccinated offers limited protection from infected persons in the same household.  The sharp differentiation between the fully vaccinated/recovered and the rest of the population may not be well founded.

I lived 10 days with a covid positive (Delta) in a small cabin, also spent several hours in a car together, yet I was under no restrictions whatsoever as fully vaccinated and had no obligation to test myself.  Before vaccination I would have been placed in quarantine if I had happened to stay 15 minutes in the same room with a total stranger who tested positive.  A midway harmonisation would have made more sense, in my opinion.  One interpretation is that the promise of freedom vs intrusive restrictions has been used actively to persuade people into getting the vaccine.
Booster mandates are also beginning to take place now.
And I also heard a second booster shot (in other words a fourth dose) is in the works.
 
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Nov 2021 02:00

NYC is 87% vaccinated now, is this one of the higher rates for a major city that you know of, Wat?
Definitely one of the highest, for such a population size. The only one I know of that is higher is Miami-Dade County, FL, at 91%. My county is at 71%.

I still like to use CovidActNow to follow COVID and vaccine trends around the US. You can compare at the state and county level. :)
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Nov 2021 04:32

Are there statistics showing fraction vaccinated or recovered?  This would be a more useful number. There are many recovered who are too young for vaccines or have recovered too recently for a vaccine.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Nov 2021 01:40

NYC is 87% vaccinated now, is this one of the higher rates for a major city that you know of, Wat?
Definitely one of the highest, for such a population size. The only one I know of that is higher is Miami-Dade County, FL, at 91%. My county is at 71%.

I still like to use CovidActNow to follow COVID and vaccine trends around the US. You can compare at the state and county level. :)
Wow Miami's is amazing regardless but especially so because it's in a red state!  I wonder what city has the lowest vaccination rate-- lol maybe it's in the same state?!
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Nov 2021 03:49

Are there statistics showing fraction vaccinated or recovered?  This would be a more useful number.
It really would be. I haven't seen a tracker for it, though data are available by which it can be estimated (with some uncertainty).
I wonder what city has the lowest vaccination rate-- lol maybe it's in the same state?!
The lowest of any metro area tracked on covidactnow's site is Hinesville, Georgia (population 81,000), at 31%. There are also many counties with much smaller percentages, but with smaller populations. Holmes Co, Ohio (population 44,000) is at 18%, for instance.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Nov 2021 09:25

Are there statistics showing fraction vaccinated or recovered?  This would be a more useful number.
It really would be. I haven't seen a tracker for it, though data are available by which it can be estimated (with some uncertainty).
I wonder what city has the lowest vaccination rate-- lol maybe it's in the same state?!
The lowest of any metro area tracked on covidactnow's site is Hinesville, Georgia (population 81,000), at 31%. There are also many counties with much smaller percentages, but with smaller populations. Holmes Co, Ohio (population 44,000) is at 18%, for instance.
I read that ERs are packed again, Wat, is this because of the lower vaccination rate in these states or is something else going on?  We even have children getting vaccinated here now so not sure why the numbers have plateaued at such a high level
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Nov 2021 18:41

I read that ERs are packed again, Wat, is this because of the lower vaccination rate in these states or is something else going on? We even have children getting vaccinated here now so not sure why the numbers have plateaued at such a high level
It's a combination of things. There are still a lot of people who are unvaccinated and who have never been exposed. When they do get exposed, they are many times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated people. But the risk when vaccinated isn't zero, either, especially at higher ages and if more time has gone by since the last dose. Vaccine effectiveness diminishes over time.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Nov 2021 22:02

I read that ERs are packed again, Wat, is this because of the lower vaccination rate in these states or is something else going on? We even have children getting vaccinated here now so not sure why the numbers have plateaued at such a high level
It's a combination of things. There are still a lot of people who are unvaccinated and who have never been exposed. When they do get exposed, they are many times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated people. But the risk when vaccinated isn't zero, either, especially at higher ages and if more time has gone by since the last dose. Vaccine effectiveness diminishes over time.
Wat :(

******
white tailed deer may be a reservoir for this virus and may reinfect humans periodically....infection rate is 30-40 pct among them.
Seems to have big implications for us?  These things are pests, I see them all around my other property.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

12 Nov 2021 00:27

The study is not yet peer reviewed so some skepticism is warranted. There was a similar study a few months ago, which wildly made the rounds on the internet, claiming to find evidence of widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection in deer populations, again through the detection of antibodies. I don't know about this latest study's methods, but the previous one was not actually able to distinguish antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 from any of a number of other coronaviruses. There are a lot of coronaviruses in the wild.

This study does at least go further in showing the lineages of active infections in the deer, which does sound more convincing. But I'd wait for experts to review it.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

12 Nov 2021 01:32

Well that's at least some better news there's a chance they might be wrong.  I noticed they also mentioned minks in Europe and how new variants can be generated in nonhuman animals, which makes me wonder if the virus mutates faster in these animals than it does in humans because the animals are in very close quarters with each other (like on a farm).
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

12 Nov 2021 07:21

A booster vaccine is now offered to the 65+ population here in Norway, but there seems to be a bit confusion about the 18-65 group.  Apparently, the health authorities find weak evidence for a clear positive benefit/risk trade-off for the non-elderly, but it seems likely that the booster will be offered next year anyway.  There seems to be some political pressure to make it happen.  If international travel will require it (currently I think a second dose is only good for 6 months), I suppose they have no choice but to offer it.  Meanwhile infection numbers are at the highest ever.  Most of those admitted to hospitals are fully vaccinated.

This makes me think that we're headed towards a situation where vaccines should be offered the vulnerable and elderly (like the flu vaccine), and the main strategy will be treatment drugs.  But travel restrictions might give the boosters a boost for yet some time.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

12 Nov 2021 17:32

The study is not yet peer reviewed so some skepticism is warranted. There was a similar study a few months ago, which wildly made the rounds on the internet, claiming to find evidence of widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection in deer populations, again through the detection of antibodies. I don't know about this latest study's methods, but the previous one was not actually able to distinguish antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 from any of a number of other coronaviruses. There are a lot of coronaviruses in the wild.

This study does at least go further in showing the lineages of active infections in the deer, which does sound more convincing. But I'd wait for experts to review it.
Wat, on the news tonight there was a map posted about increase in hospitalizations and NY was on the list.  The presenter explained that although in some states it's due to a lower vaccination rate, in the case of NY it's because the vaccines "wear off" after 6 months and thats why hospitalizations are starting to go up here again and more widespread boosters are needed and will be needed every 6 months.

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