Source of the post
But death rates lag behind and it may be too early, and a lot more people get tested this time.
Yeah, I think it's still a little too early. The page was last updated October 30th. New cases in the northern hemisphere were surging then, and deaths are still catching up in many places. The data for the US seems to end right at the low point between 2nd and 3rd 'waves', and we know the 3rd is much more severe. Belgium's deaths appear to have peaked around November 12th, and on October 30th the death rate was about half of the peak.
Until more of these deaths above normal data come in, a good way to estimate the true impact in closer to real time may be to compare the trends in new cases, positivity rate, and case fatality rate (comparing rate of new cases with the rate of deaths lagging it by about 2 weeks, though the lag varies a bit by country.) Most countries are testing much more now, which along with better treatments is driving the CFRs down. We are clearly catching more true cases and handling them better, at least for as long as hospitals aren't overwhelmed. But the surge is still so significant that we are seeing rapid filling of hospitals in the US, and several states are having to move patients elsewhere. Getting overwhelmed is a real threat right now.