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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

19 May 2021 15:51

PBS Frontline had an excellent episode last night about how the American healthcare system is ill-equipped to handle public health crises like pandemics.  But we knew this even before this happened.....yet another mark against the for profit health "care" system.
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

20 May 2021 00:25

Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post The excess deaths in Peru are now 503 per 100,000 people, suggesting an infection mortality rate greater than 0.5%.

Maybe, as in suggesting that covid in countries with negative excess deaths makes people healthier.  Mortality rates need to be divided into population groups like age to become meaningful.

Vaccination of the 75+ age groups is now complete over here, and just now they made the recommendation that very frail people (i.e. basically dying people) not be vaccinated, as it was concluded that amongst people who died shortly after getting the vaccine, the vaccine had sped up the death process in 10% of the cases.  A recommendation a bit too late.  But it doesn't seem to have influenced the excess death statistics.  Still negative.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

20 May 2021 04:18

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post Maybe, as in suggesting that covid in countries with negative excess deaths makes people healthier.


There is very little flu this year thanks to the travel and pandemic restrictions. So it's not hard for a country to have negative excess deaths even despite some COVID-19 deaths. (Some have also pointed out the reduced traffic during lockdowns, implying fewer traffic deaths, though this has actually been roughly balanced out by riskier driving behavior leading to more deadly accidents, at least in the US and Canada.)

I also talked about this a few posts ago, and it's an important factor in pandemic death estimates that use death above normal data.


midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post Mortality rates need to be divided into population groups like age to become meaningful.

Sure, if we are interested in one person or age group's specific risk, or want to understand effect of a different population pyramid like we did for Italy. Otherwise, if we want to know how severe the virus is in terms of how many deaths we might expect if a whole country is hard-hit, where in practice no particular age group can be well protected, then the weighted average over all ages is a useful measure. You likewise pointed out early on that the IFR matters in this sense:

What are your thoughts about the mortality rate?  I think this is a big issue.  If it's low, towards that of regular flu, it seems clear that what the world is really facing is a panic epidemic spread by media.  If the mortality is above 5% as some data might suggest, then clearly the world must not simply flatten the curve, but stop it.


Since the pandemic began I worked with the assumption that it is about 1% (or with some fuzziness depending on uncertainties and social factors: 0.5 to 2%), based on the reported CFRs in specific outbreaks and knowing roughly the fraction of asymptomatic cases. Then the antibody studies in New York supported that (not less than 0.5%). Now we can simply do excess deaths / total population, which is necessarily an underestimate because of incompleteness and because not everyone has been infected. So I didn't need to wait until now to believe this figure, but my confidence in it has only grown stronger as we have more data and lines of evidence.
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

20 May 2021 14:29

Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post Since the pandemic began I worked with the assumption that it is about 1% (or with some fuzziness depending on uncertainties and social factors: 0.5 to 2%), based on the reported CFRs in specific outbreaks and knowing roughly the fraction of asymptomatic cases. Then the antibody studies in New York supported that (not less than 0.5%).

That figure varies significantly between countries.  The differences could be real (due to healthcare, lifestyles, genes, population distribution, etc), or the methods for estimating could differ, or a combination.  The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has published a risk assessment with the following mortality rates by age:
All ages: 0.12%
0-19: 0.0022%
20-39: 0.020%
40-59: 0.040%
60-69: 0.18%
70-79: 0.91%
80+: 4.0 %

That easily explains the negative excess deaths.  In the 80+ group there are likely a few percent very frail people near death anyway, and without the flu threat many have lived an extra year.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

25 May 2021 02:01

midtskogen wrote:
Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post The excess deaths in Peru are now 503 per 100,000 people, suggesting an infection mortality rate greater than 0.5%.

Maybe, as in suggesting that covid in countries with negative excess deaths makes people healthier.  Mortality rates need to be divided into population groups like age to become meaningful.

Vaccination of the 75+ age groups is now complete over here, and just now they made the recommendation that very frail people (i.e. basically dying people) not be vaccinated, as it was concluded that amongst people who died shortly after getting the vaccine, the vaccine had sped up the death process in 10% of the cases.  A recommendation a bit too late.  But it doesn't seem to have influenced the excess death statistics.  Still negative.

it seems to me that everything is situational. There must be a sensible approach to vaccination. If a person is extremely weak, then how can one additionally load his body with the introduction of a vaccine?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

28 May 2021 07:04

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