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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Oct 2021 01:16

The fact by sharing your DNA also means sharing your relatives' DNA is just how nature works.  You own your of DNA, it was not given to you under an NDA, so you can share it if you like.  But that your ability to have control over your own DNA is limited, doesn't mean that it's OK to sample every citizen.  That would be kind of like arguing that murder is fine because everybody is going to die anyway.  Even less it means that since this ability or right might not mean anything for practical purposes, any other right over your own body can just be given up as well.

Some travel experiences this week: Upon entering Austria a proof of vaccination, test or recovery had to be presented, and a privately printed paper with a name matching the password was sufficient.  The QR code was not verified.  Crossed the border to Slovenia twice, no border check at all.  Twice the other way, no check first time, second time passports and covid documentation had to be presented, but it was not verified online.  Visited a McD in Austria.  They demanded to see covid documentation to enter.  Very weird, and I can't imagine that would be accepted in my own country.  Germany seems even stricter about covid, but no issues since I was just in transit in the airport.  Some airlines demand FFP2 type masks, but in practice they fail to enforce it since these are not so common.  This appears to be a official regulation in some countries in situations where masks are mandated.  When entering Norway the covid checkpoint is like the customs.  You either go through green declaring that you're not required to go through testing and your papers are in order, or you go into the test lane.  I suppose they might select people for questioning, but since it's difficult for them to know what countries you've been to and what rules then apply, it's based on trust.  A mask of some kind is still required at the airport, but this is the only place with any mask requirement in Norway.  Masks are required in indoor shops in both Austria and Slovenia, and it seems to be respected (but not so much in hotels).  Many don't like to cover the nose, so it seems somewhat pointless.  Except from the masks, air travel in Europe is close to normal and the crowds in the airports seemed normal.  Some delays which the airlines blamed on the ground crews being too few, so the airport might not yet have ramped up to deal with the increased traffic.  And airlines still make frequent changes, the risk of being rebooked is high, since they probably are unable to predict well the number of passengers.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Oct 2021 04:09

 
A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Oct 2021 19:25

midtskogen wrote:
The fact by sharing your DNA also means sharing your relatives' DNA is just how nature works.  You own your of DNA, it was not given to you under an NDA, so you can share it if you like.  But that your ability to have control over your own DNA is limited, doesn't mean that it's OK to sample every citizen.  That would be kind of like arguing that murder is fine because everybody is going to die anyway.  Even less it means that since this ability or right might not mean anything for practical purposes, any other right over your own body can just be given up as well.

Some travel experiences this week: Upon entering Austria a proof of vaccination, test or recovery had to be presented, and a privately printed paper with a name matching the password was sufficient.  The QR code was not verified.  Crossed the border to Slovenia twice, no border check at all.  Twice the other way, no check first time, second time passports and covid documentation had to be presented, but it was not verified online.  Visited a McD in Austria.  They demanded to see covid documentation to enter.  Very weird, and I can't imagine that would be accepted in my own country.  Germany seems even stricter about covid, but no issues since I was just in transit in the airport.  Some airlines demand FFP2 type masks, but in practice they fail to enforce it since these are not so common.  This appears to be a official regulation in some countries in situations where masks are mandated.  When entering Norway the covid checkpoint is like the customs.  You either go through green declaring that you're not required to go through testing and your papers are in order, or you go into the test lane.  I suppose they might select people for questioning, but since it's difficult for them to know what countries you've been to and what rules then apply, it's based on trust.  A mask of some kind is still required at the airport, but this is the only place with any mask requirement in Norway.  Masks are required in indoor shops in both Austria and Slovenia, and it seems to be respected (but not so much in hotels).  Many don't like to cover the nose, so it seems somewhat pointless.  Except from the masks, air travel in Europe is close to normal and the crowds in the airports seemed normal.  Some delays which the airlines blamed on the ground crews being too few, so the airport might not yet have ramped up to deal with the increased traffic.  And airlines still make frequent changes, the risk of being rebooked is high, since they probably are unable to predict well the number of passengers.

I was reading today that Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland are having great success with dealing with the pandemic because of the extremely high vaccination rates in those nations.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

09 Oct 2021 05:21

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post I was reading today that Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland are having great success with dealing with the pandemic because of the extremely high vaccination rates in those nations.

Norway lifted the restrictions last week despite an infection rate near the top of the entire pandemic, when 2/3 of the population had been fully vaccinated.  I think other nations have higher vaccination rates, but few have become seriously ill in Norway, so the restrictions could no longer be justified.  871 have either died of or with covid, and the 80+ group accounts for most of these deaths (the median age is 83, which is identical to the life expectancy).  61 of these were fully vaccinated (median age 86).  The mortality rate for covid is estimated to be in the 0.05 - 0.2% range, and 99% of the deaths are in the 45+ group.  A fifth wave is expected this winter, but there seems to be confidence of normality nevertheless.  Whether booster doses will be offered has not been decided.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

09 Oct 2021 21:42

midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post I was reading today that Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland are having great success with dealing with the pandemic because of the extremely high vaccination rates in those nations.

Norway lifted the restrictions last week despite an infection rate near the top of the entire pandemic, when 2/3 of the population had been fully vaccinated.  I think other nations have higher vaccination rates, but few have become seriously ill in Norway, so the restrictions could no longer be justified.  871 have either died of or with covid, and the 80+ group accounts for most of these deaths (the median age is 83, which is identical to the life expectancy).  61 of these were fully vaccinated (median age 86).  The mortality rate for covid is estimated to be in the 0.05 - 0.2% range, and 99% of the deaths are in the 45+ group.  A fifth wave is expected this winter, but there seems to be confidence of normality nevertheless.  Whether booster doses will be offered has not been decided.

Be careful with the booster if you decide to take it.  I know this is just anecdotal but a number of people have been telling me the third shot has given them enlarged lymph nodes and it's been painful for them in their arm pits for a few days (up to 4).  It is still recommended, but if I had to go through that I would tell you three would be my limit and I would never get a fourth shot no matter what.
It seems like the infection rate is not what is used for impact anymore, it is the hospitalization rate that is being used to decide how well it is being controlled.
There is a limit to how many times I would allow myself to be injected, not because I am "antivax" but simply because I really do NOT like needles and am very sensitive to them.  Pills are another matter......  I suspect I am not alone in really not liking needles.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

09 Oct 2021 23:00

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Be careful with the booster if you decide to take it.

My basic take on vaccines is that the benefits should outweigh the risks.  So if there is a 10% chance of getting a disease, the disease should be at least 10 times worse than the ill effects of the vaccine.  The benefit of doubt is given to the vaccine, though, since it's generally better to have certain but mild problems than unlikely but serious problems.  Think of it like insurance. Often a good idea, but insuring everything doesn't make sense and will make you broke. For the covid vaccines (like it was for the swine flu) it's not entirely clear to me that the vaccine is the winner, but there is a reasonable amount of doubt.  The benefit/risk crossing point seems to be somewhere in the 40 - 60 age group (I'm 48), so if you're above 40, you should take it, otherwise you must know that it's not for your own sake.  The regular flu vaccines, however, there is no doubt.  I've never felt the slightest ill effect from them, and presumably they also protect.  There can be some very serious side effects from vaccines, but as long as they're extremely rare, I ignore that as I ignore the risk of extremely rare outcomes of diseases.  Living is not risk free.  Booster doses this soon don't seem like a good solution to me.  It's rather a sign that the vaccines need to be improved.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Oct 2021 08:10

midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Be careful with the booster if you decide to take it.

My basic take on vaccines is that the benefits should outweigh the risks.  So if there is a 10% chance of getting a disease, the disease should be at least 10 times worse than the ill effects of the vaccine.  The benefit of doubt is given to the vaccine, though, since it's generally better to have certain but mild problems than unlikely but serious problems.  Think of it like insurance. Often a good idea, but insuring everything doesn't make sense and will make you broke. For the covid vaccines (like it was for the swine flu) it's not entirely clear to me that the vaccine is the winner, but there is a reasonable amount of doubt.  The benefit/risk crossing point seems to be somewhere in the 40 - 60 age group (I'm 48), so if you're above 40, you should take it, otherwise you must know that it's not for your own sake.  The regular flu vaccines, however, there is no doubt.  I've never felt the slightest ill effect from them, and presumably they also protect.  There can be some very serious side effects from vaccines, but as long as they're extremely rare, I ignore that as I ignore the risk of extremely rare outcomes of diseases.  Living is not risk free.  Booster doses this soon don't seem like a good solution to me.  It's rather a sign that the vaccines need to be improved.

And beyond that I think humans need to live more sustainability and not go into parts of the environment they dont belong in and stop with wet markets once and for all.  A new Harvard study came out showing how pandemics will accelerate unless humanity changes its behavior....we must listen to that.  I also don't like the idea of 3 shots of the same vaccine in one year, the body needs time to recover and the side effects with the third shot show that this might be too much.  I am fine with one shot a year, but not with this overload.  I don't like pain and dont deal well with it regardless of whatever diminishing returns are being provided by third and fourth shots and I think the risk vs benefits should be weighed personally for each person.

I am the same age as you, Mid, I actually turned 48 on 9-15.  I agree with benefits of vaccines however I reach a point beyond which I won't go.....I will take two shots, and maybe even a third, but if this problem with pain is true after I get my third shot, I won't ever come back for a fourth.  I will take the benefit I already got with the two doses and maybe the booster and just stick with that and pass on whatever benefit might have come from anything that comes after that and say no thanks, because I dont want to deal with the pain.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Oct 2021 09:51

https://twitter.com/i/events/1447232902605926409

This might be a reason to get an infinite number of vaccines and stay the hell away from people who are likely not to be vaccinated.

Brain shrinkage, delusions, hallucinations, etc, even in people with mild symptoms?
 
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14 Oct 2021 21:52

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post Uhm, what?  Ok, I think what you're arguing is that there is a conflict of rights. 

Essentially, yes. Everyone has the right to bodily integrity, and hence to refuse to get the vaccine. Likewise, other people have the right to their bodily integrity, and the law allows them to refuse to have unvaccinated people work for them, attend their universities, etc. This "conflict of rights" is described directly in the Supreme Court decision:

Real liberty for all could not exist under the operation of a principle which recognizes the right of each individual person to use his own liberty, whether in respect of his person or his property, regardless of the injury that may be done to others."


I'm not sure why people who reject vaccine mandates by raising their rights over their bodies have trouble with the idea that the reason these mandates exist is precisely in order to prevent that right from being infringed upon in a more severe way. The inconvenience of being rejected from a university or place of work is much less than the inconvenience of getting hospitalized or dying because of someone else being unvaccinated. Or being unable to receive care for any reason because the hospitals were overwhelmed.

If the vaccines were 100% effective and if everyone could safely get one, then it would be simple enough to say "if you feel you are at risk from the disease, get the vaccine." But even leaving aside people who legitimately should not get the vaccine, few vaccines work that effectively. We saw some data for efficacy across many vaccines earlier (mostly before delta). But these are some more recent data from the UK:

Image

Data from here in Washington are similar. The vaccines clearly work, but not well enough to be close to a guarantee against severe illness or death. There's still an individual and societal risk, proportional to the percentage of the population that is unvaccinated. It's also proportional to age, in a similar way as the original virus before vaccines, though this could also be somewhat a function of older people getting their vaccines earlier, and big part of why the CDC puts great effort into determining when is the best time to allow certain groups to get booster shots.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

14 Oct 2021 22:54

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post This might be a reason to get an infinite number of vaccines and stay the hell away from people who are likely not to be vaccinated.

Brain shrinkage, delusions, hallucinations, etc, even in people with mild symptoms?

Perhaps an unusual case, although it's not at all uncommon for COVID-19 to have a huge range of effects on the body and brain, as well as effects from an immune response gone awry. Many effects are still quite mysterious. Last summer as the long term effects of COVID were becoming apparent, some health experts were saying they foresee a time when having had COVID-19 would be considered a pre-existing health condition. Which sounds rather bleak, but if you think of it, having recovered from a serious pneumonia is not that different.

I recall Israeli data suggest long term (greater than a month) effects from having even a mild case of COVID-19 happen about 20 percent of the time.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

14 Oct 2021 22:57

Watsisname wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post This might be a reason to get an infinite number of vaccines and stay the hell away from people who are likely not to be vaccinated.

Brain shrinkage, delusions, hallucinations, etc, even in people with mild symptoms?

Perhaps an unusual case, although it's not at all uncommon for COVID-19 to have a huge range of effects on the body and brain, as well as effects from an immune response gone awry. Many effects are still quite mysterious. Last summer as the long term effects of COVID were becoming apparent, some health experts were saying they foresee a time when having had COVID-19 would be considered a pre-existing health condition. Which sounds rather bleak, but if you think of it, having recovered from a serious pneumonia is not that different.

I recall Israeli data suggest long term (greater than a month) effects from having even a mild case of COVID-19 happen about 20 percent of the time.

Wat how long do you think these long haul effects might last for?  Just anecdotally one person I spoke to said it lasted for 6 months- do you think it depends on the symptom or do you think that's typical?  I hope none of these effects is permanent.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

14 Oct 2021 23:15

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Wat how long do you think these long haul effects might last for?

Too early to know. At the very least, I expect the answer will be "it depends", potentially by a lot.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

15 Oct 2021 03:43

Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post The vaccines clearly work

Yes, a recent study from Norway found that the vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalisation by >70%:

"We included 7,977 cases of Delta and 12,078 cases of Alpha. Overall, 347 (1.7%) cases were hospitalised. The aRR of hospitalisation for Delta compared to Alpha was 0.97 (95%CI 0.76–1.23). Partially vaccinated cases had a 72% reduced risk of hospitalisation (95%CI 59%–82%), and fully vaccinated cases had a 76% reduced risk (95%CI 61%–85%), compared to unvaccinated cases".
 

Which is not a dramatic reduction, but clearly something.  The vaccines seem to reduce the risk of infection even more:
x.png
x.png (82.42 KiB) Viewed 772 times


The latest wave has consisted of 100% Delta.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

16 Oct 2021 19:13

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post The latest wave has consisted of 100% Delta.

Yup, same here, and probably much of the world. These are the sequencing trends here in Washington:

Image

Watching how rapidly the proportion of sequences shifted to delta was astonishing. The greatest sign of its competitive advantage over the other variants. Let's hope we don't see one that's similarly transmissible but also significantly immune/vaccine evading. So far there has not been anything too alarming on that front, but there is still very widespread transmission around parts of the world, so the odds of another significant variation appearing are not low.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

16 Oct 2021 22:08

Watsisname wrote:
midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post The latest wave has consisted of 100% Delta.

Yup, same here, and probably much of the world. These are the sequencing trends here in Washington:

Image

Watching how rapidly the proportion of sequences shifted to delta was astonishing. The greatest sign of its competitive advantage over the other variants. Let's hope we don't see one that's similarly transmissible but also significantly immune/vaccine evading. So far there has not been anything too alarming on that front, but there is still very widespread transmission around parts of the world, so the odds of another significant variation appearing are not low.

Wat, what happened to those variations that were supposed to be worse than Delta? One was Lambda I think and the other was Mu?

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