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A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

01 Aug 2021 00:08

CDC leaked report broadcast and confirmed showing they now believe the Delta variant to be as contagious as chicken pox and more contagious than many other viruses like small pox, ebola, etc.?  Does anyone have a list of the most contagious viruses and their r values to compare them to each other?  Thanks!

The new report also indicates that delta infected people who got the vaccine are just as likely to pass it along as an unvaccinated person?  Wow.

It also looks like Pfizer is developing a delta specific version of the vaccine, could this indicate that the virus is close to evolving into an entirely new virus rather than just a new strain?  Maybe CoVid21 before long?
 
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

01 Aug 2021 23:51

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post It also looks like Pfizer is developing a delta specific version of the vaccine, could this indicate that the virus is close to evolving into an entirely new virus rather than just a new strain?

No. The media have been mixing the terms variant and strain a lot (to which I had also been guilty). But there have not been any new officially recognized strains diverging from SARS-CoV-2 yet. That could happen eventually, but for now there are just many (and really, many) variants, which are basically just mutations that affect how the virus performs the same functions, like being a bit better at invading a cell. Most variants don't become a problem and don't even make the news. But a few like alpha and especially delta are much more transmissible, or reduce the efficacy of current vaccines, and thus become a concern.

Understanding virus isolates, variants, and strains (virology.ws)

Since all these variants are not sufficiently different in phenotype, they're still all considered the same strain of the virus. But the reduced efficacy of vaccines to them is why we will be needing boosters.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Aug 2021 03:17

Watsisname wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post It also looks like Pfizer is developing a delta specific version of the vaccine, could this indicate that the virus is close to evolving into an entirely new virus rather than just a new strain?

No. The media have been mixing the terms variant and strain a lot (to which I had also been guilty). But there have not been any new officially recognized strains diverging from SARS-CoV-2 yet. That could happen eventually, but for now there are just many (and really, many) variants, which are basically just mutations that affect how the virus performs the same functions, like being a bit better at invading a cell. Most variants don't become a problem and don't even make the news. But a few like alpha and especially delta are much more transmissible, or reduce the efficacy of current vaccines, and thus become a concern.

Understanding virus isolates, variants, and strains (virology.ws)

Since all these variants are not sufficiently different in phenotype, they're still all considered the same strain of the virus. But the reduced efficacy of vaccines to them is why we will be needing boosters.

I'm really worried about this new Lambda variant too which is just emerging.  This is a preprint, but what do you think of what it states, Wat?
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/v ... o-vaccines
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Aug 2021 05:03

nationally we just hit 70% vaccination rates yesterday?

so let's say by the end of the year we hit 80% fully vaccinated.....that leaves the 20% who said they will never get vaccinated.

assume half of those 20% gets the virus.  So we now have 90% that are either fully vaccinated or have caught the virus.....would that be enough to stave off further waves?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Aug 2021 14:00

There will be new waves and variants.  This is what viruses do.  The question is whether we're going to care.  If the vaccines work, the seriousness should be somewhere between a cold and a flu for the vaccinated.

I had my second Moderna shot yesterday.  The first gave me no ill effects whatsoever.  This time I got a slight fever, body ache and chills, so something is going on. No big deal, but glad I hadn't a busy schedule today.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Aug 2021 20:56

That's the first generation of anti-bodies fighting off the second vaccine. Maybe it's a good sign?
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Aug 2021 22:24

It's the immune system at work, yes.  The second Moderna shot seems to be like that for most people, to varying degree.
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

04 Aug 2021 17:18

Yep. I had same symptoms after my second Moderna dose, though much stronger. Stronger symptoms seem more common in younger people than elderly, which is interesting. But again just the immune system at work. :) I'd be more nervous if I had both shots and had no effects at all.
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

04 Aug 2021 23:17

I didn't have much energy to spare on the second day.  I took some paracetamol and worked till about 13:00 and then decided to call it a day.  On the third day everything was normal.
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A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

05 Aug 2021 05:19

I wonder what the third shot will feel like once we have to get a booster?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

05 Aug 2021 05:26

Watsisname wrote:
Yep. I had same symptoms after my second Moderna dose, though much stronger. Stronger symptoms seem more common in younger people than elderly, which is interesting. But again just the immune system at work. :) I'd be more nervous if I had both shots and had no effects at all.

Maybe it's because older people have weaker immune systems, Wat?
 
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

16 Aug 2021 22:12

One of the more eye-opening articles I've read lately. It answers a number of questions I had about the role of transmission in the vaccinated vs. unvaccinated, and how much we can expect boosters to help on an individual and societal level.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta


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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Aug 2021 03:46

The take-away might be what governments will be very slow to accept: The vaccines aren't as effective as thought and the reports of their success so far has been influenced by wishful thinking.  It might not be all gloom, though.  Like the rate of success might have been overestimated in periods when the virus would have been in decline anyway, the apparent lack of success might be explained by the onset of a new wave which would be very hard to stop in any case.

The question for governments now becomes whether to go back to restrictions or simply say that we've done the vaccination and all that can be reasonably done.

Then what about cures?  It seems to me that vaccines have been greatly favoured over medications.  Any suggestion that the vaccines are effective gets welcomed without hesitation, whereas any suggestion that medications are effective gets ridiculed.  This could be a harmful polarisation.
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

31 Aug 2021 02:05

Still no sign that the vaccines are as efficient as initially advertised.  Since the recent variants are regarded more contagious, does it mean that the vaccines basically makes these variants more or less like the original virus, and with social restrictions now being lifted, the world is in reality adopting the Swedish model?
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A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

31 Aug 2021 22:47

midtskogen wrote:
Still no sign that the vaccines are as efficient as initially advertised.  Since the recent variants are regarded more contagious, does it mean that the vaccines basically makes these variants more or less like the original virus, and with social restrictions now being lifted, the world is in reality adopting the Swedish model?

Looks like everyone is moving onto Booster shots now.  We might all be getting injections every six months to a year.  Welcome to the New New World lol.  There are new travel restrictions being implemented for travel between the US and Europe, but intranational travel seems to be opening up even though intercontinental travel is still shut down and looks to stay that way.  Looks like plane travel is going down again too.  Maybe we will save the planet by traveling more by train now.  Looks like Europe is implementing new super high speed trains (maglev?) to replace air planes for travel between EU member nations anyway.

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