The purple bug shows the direction you are travelling through space. Where you point your nose has no bearing on this (other than hyperdriove efficiency, or unless you are actively changing your vector). If the purple velocity vector bug is not on your target, you will miss it. Depends how close you want to get to it.
The purple bug is on my target though. It's the pink that isn't So when I have just Sync velocity turned on I'm centered on the purple. But when I do Rotate to Target I'm centered on the pink marker. I'm in retrograde too. So should I just keep Sync Velocity selected and keep it centered on the purple marker or should I also select Rotate to Target which will center me on the pink marker?
The two seem to be getting closer with just Sync Velocity selected and being centered on the purple marker, so maybe just keep it there?
Compare the previous image to this one-- they are getting closer.
And why do I always start with this -32.62 ly/sec warp bug?!