Ultimate space simulation software

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by Watsisname
27 Jul 2021 22:56
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

37194 Thanks for the infection rate measurement for Delta, Wat, is this variant any more lethal than the original? Sure thing. My understanding is also that it's a bit uncertain and difficult to measure, but it's either about the same or a little higher (for people who have neither been vaccinated ...
by Watsisname
27 Jul 2021 21:18
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

37188 I wonder if there is a quantitative comparison about how much more contagious it is vs the original. What I have read is that Delta is about 50% more transmissible than Alpha (the UK variant), which was about 50-70% more transmissible than the original. So if R 0  for the original virus was b...
by Watsisname
27 Jul 2021 15:18
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

A-L-E-X wrote:
Qr Bbpost Florida also only reports rates on Fridays, obviously trying to undercut media attention on the issue.

I love it. Things can't change if we don't observe them. The faster things are changing, the less often we should check. :)

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by Watsisname
22 Jul 2021 20:55
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

37050 When people suggest that we weren't nearly afraid enough in March 2020, does it mean that they now reject the "flatten the curve" idea of that time? Yes and no. It's more complicated. "Flatten the curve" can make sense very early in the pandemic, when society is contemplat...
by Watsisname
22 Jul 2021 07:11
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

37033 Wat, how did the 1918 flu pandemic end?  Was that with vaccinations or was some other method employed? No, there was no vaccine developed for it. They instead used many of the same measures we still use today: social distancing, limits on gatherings, and in some places wearing masks. These me...
by Watsisname
22 Jul 2021 05:07
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

37028 I don't think what delays action is so much fear of panic, but lack of data. I do think a delay in action out of fear of causing panic played a role. There are numerous examples of this being a part of decision making directly from leaders at multiple levels of government. It even played a ro...
by Watsisname
21 Jul 2021 08:55
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

A powerful and well-researched piece by Tanner Greer on Palladium:

The Myth of Panic
by Watsisname
20 Jul 2021 17:48
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 410
Views: 126761

Unusual weather

This fire and smoke season is --(unsurprisingly given the state of the drought)-- terrible. It's not even August yet!

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by Watsisname
20 Jul 2021 11:59
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread
Replies: 385
Views: 66273

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

An estimate (by three different methods using excess mortality data) suggests the actual death toll from COVID-19 in India is between 3 and 5 million (versus the official figure of 400,000). Many deaths occurred in a spread out fashion last year due to the pandemic restrictions (which indeed flatten...
by Watsisname
20 Jul 2021 11:10
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 503
Views: 154896

Show off your work

36984 Since I moved a bit uphill with a view many years ago, low clouds have been something which never fails to fascinate. I never get tired of it. My favorite experience is ascending through the layer, whether by climbing or on a plane. Popping through the dark grey ceiling to suddenly discover a...
by Watsisname
13 Jul 2021 04:25
Forum: General Discussions
Topic: The most massive black holes in the Universe
Replies: 50
Views: 15437

The most massive black holes in the Universe

longname wrote:
Qr Bbpost Does this guy's simulation take into account the motion of the camera?

Sadly not, though it is still an impressive display. I had never seen a real time renderer of almost any black hole metric you might want, even for negative mass (white hole) with spin.
by Watsisname
12 Jul 2021 05:30
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 503
Views: 154896

Show off your work

Another great hike. Sunrise on top of Sauk Mountain, just above a dense cloud layer. When I began climbing that morning I saw the mountain shrouded in overcast, and thought "Whelp. Either I'll be in the clouds the whole time and it will be miserable, or the top will be just poking through and i...
by Watsisname
27 Jun 2021 01:30
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 410
Views: 126761

Unusual weather

Looking at the most recent high res forecast models for Monday. I'm kind of speechless. The overnight temperature right now is already like a normal daily high. Tomorrow will be hotter. Monday will be out of this world. In fact,  it will be hotter in Portland than about 99.8% of the world. https://i...
by Watsisname
26 Jun 2021 00:49
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 410
Views: 126761

Unusual weather

36765 it could hit 110 in Seattle and 120 in Portland?!  That sounds a few degrees higher than most model forecasts (after adjustment for their biases), but we'll see. The models are in substantial agreement that it will be record-setting heat, regardless of what the exact numbers end up being. In ...
by Watsisname
26 Jun 2021 00:08
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 410
Views: 126761

Unusual weather

Here it comes... a sure to be record-setting heatwave for the Pacific Northwest. Seattle will be hotter than Miami and could reach 104F (40C). The rate of snowmelt in the mountains is already getting crazy from the combination of heat and sunshine. Not to mention how this will exacerbate an already ...