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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 16 Mar 2020 15:04
by FastFourierTransform
midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post Work from home policies for everyone who can do it.
Switch to remote teaching in universities, high schools and schools for pupils aged 12+.

These two things have gone quite wrong in Spain. Universities were not prepared to transfer all the logistics at all so they have just said that the academic calendar gets shifter for the duration of the first half-month. This has led to students to gather to do "botellón" (the classic drinking in the park and the streets), which has led to larger concentrations than the expected for normal attending to classes. The same goes on for coorporations, they don't had previous clear plans to transfer their workforce to home (those plans require a legal framework and a lot of thinking and everything has to be paid by the coorporation). The result is that many have gone home without clear instructions on how to continue their job (sometimes is just impossible) so, before the lockdown, many workers from Madrid have been rushing to the beaches in Valencia thinking of this crisis as a holiday and gathering in mass on the beaches.
Madrid had half of the infected people in Spain, and these measures incentivized the concentration of people and the propagation towards other regions of the country. Now that we have realized that many people is going to die we are starting lockdown. Nearly a month after what epidemiologists asked for.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 16 Mar 2020 21:15
by Wendelinefroger
Yesterday Macau (Macao?) confirmed its first case in 40 days! They had ten cases back in February, but they closed down all their casinos, which halted the spread despite it being just off the coast of China. A few days back a woman returned from Portugal, where she was diagnosed. Hopefully she'll recover and the virus won't spread

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 17 Mar 2020 03:47
by A-L-E-X
We now have a (voluntary but highly suggested) quarantine in place 8 PM to 5 AM

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 17 Mar 2020 03:52
by A-L-E-X
Watsisname wrote:
Seattle in the age of coronavirus: Not quite empty, but eerie.

It's finally happening here, just like the major cities in the countries that went through this before the US. I've been to many of the places photographed here (especially Pike Place Market, which in normal times is always packed with people). I am happy to see such dramatic action. We expect it is already having a large effect on slowing the virus, though it may be about another week before we see that show up in reported cases (since many of those who are already exposed will take time to show symptoms and be tested.) 

I'm curious to drive down there one of these days and just explore around -- assuming authorities do not shut down unnecessary interstate travel, which seems a real possibility.

They began Phase I testing of the new vaccine in Seattle!

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 17 Mar 2020 04:12
by A-L-E-X
midtskogen wrote:
There is a need to explain the 0.7% death rate of South Korea versus the 7% death rate in Italy.  Two factors are important for the latter case: Who get tested, and hospital capacity. Clearly, the testing rate influences the numbers.  If mainly people on their deathbed get tested, you'll get a very high rate.  I think it's too early to call it settled.  We simply don't know how many have been infected.

What several Europeans countries now aim for is no longer to flatten the curve, but to stop it, and I do think the question whether this is warranted needs to be asked.  If flattening the curve can bring the mortality rate down to the South Korea rate (or below because many have no or mild symptoms and were never tested), then attempting to stop the curve rather than flattening it will do significant harm.

I'm not saying that this virus is intrinsically harmless, but asking whether there are indications now that, if the curve gets flattened, the virus can be made relatively harmless.  I have a growing suspicion that Europe is overreacting.  Flattening the curve does not require a complete lockdown.

Italy has one of the older and more vulnerable populations. If you look at capacity, Italy actually has a higher per capita capacity than the US does.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 17 Mar 2020 13:54
by midtskogen
Interestingly, Norway went for a near complete lockdown, whereas Sweden has chosen a different path with limited restrictions, schools etc remain open, not unlike the UK.  Who gets it right?

In Norway the national health authorities did not recommend closing schools and borders.  It was more a political decision than a scientific decision.  Fear is definitely a driving force.  The "flattening the curve" makes much sense to me, but it's looks like an abandoned goal here replaced by "stopping the curve" and the argument seems to be that China and South Korea succeeded.  I think it needs to be questioned.

So we get politicians saying that we need to shut down everything whatever the cost ("stopping the curve") and scientists saying that they expect a large portion of the population to get infected and the peak will be in several months after which herd immunity will set in, and the slow development is what will keep hospitals to stay on top ("flattening the curve").  This gives the public the impression that we'll be in a state of complete crisis for a very long time.  Politics and science aren't speaking in one voice.  I think this is bad.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 18 Mar 2020 04:55
by A-L-E-X
midtskogen wrote:
Interestingly, Norway went for a near complete lockdown, whereas Sweden has chosen a different path with limited restrictions, schools etc remain open, not unlike the UK.  Who gets it right?

In Norway the national health authorities did not recommend closing schools and borders.  It was more a political decision than a scientific decision.  Fear is definitely a driving force.  The "flattening the curve" makes much sense to me, but it's looks like an abandoned goal here replaced by "stopping the curve" and the argument seems to be that China and South Korea succeeded.  I think it needs to be questioned.

So we get politicians saying that we need to shut down everything whatever the cost ("stopping the curve") and scientists saying that they expect a large portion of the population to get infected and the peak will be in several months after which herd immunity will set in, and the slow development is what will keep hospitals to stay on top ("flattening the curve").  This gives the public the impression that we'll be in a state of complete crisis for a very long time.  Politics and science aren't speaking in one voice.  I think this is bad.

Problem is better safe than sorry.  Professionals here are worried we are going down the road of Italy, just 10 days behind, when we should be more like South Korea.  Italy was a little late with the closings....
Nothing is worth the extreme cost in lives, better to shut everything down and keep it shut down.  The only good thing I've seen our president do is he seems to want to compensate everyone for the shutdown and give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package.  This is what the bailout of 2008 should have been, it should have gone to the people rather than the corporations who caused the mess.  And the heads of those companies should have been in prison rather than allowed to walk away with lush compensation packages.

BTW here the scientists and politicians are all speaking with one voice for a change and they are all saying to shut everything down.  Peak wont be for 6-7 weeks at the earliest and they say to expect things to be shut down for most of the summer.  They say this is the only way to flatten the curve and not end up like another Italy.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 18 Mar 2020 05:35
by A-L-E-X
Interesting report from Venice, with all the Coronavirus lock down, the pollution in the Venice waterways has disappeared as well the air pollution, when all the cruise ships went away.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 18 Mar 2020 06:47
by midtskogen
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 18 Mar 2020 16:10
by Watsisname

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 18 Mar 2020 20:11
by Stellarator
midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Generally speaking, these emergency funds are from governmental contingencies established prior for these situations, or set-up during the onset. Most Western countries are now implementing these. While most do not apply to *every* citizen, a greater concern is simply how long these would last and just how effective they are at alleviating financial burdens.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 19 Mar 2020 02:11
by midtskogen
1600 infected in Norway, 6 dead.  Average age of the fatalities: 89 years.  An Italian study reports that the median age for the fatalities in Italy is 79.5 for men and 83.7 for women.  

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 19 Mar 2020 11:28
by A-L-E-X
midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

from rich people who didn't pay their taxes of course

we already have a policy platform on the table to start taxing Amazon and Google and charging them for collecting our private data.... that would give every American 1000 a month every month by taxing these behemoths.  Universal basic income.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 19 Mar 2020 11:30
by A-L-E-X
Stellarator wrote:
midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Generally speaking, these emergency funds are from governmental contingencies established prior for these situations, or set-up during the onset. Most Western countries are now implementing these. While most do not apply to *every* citizen, a greater concern is simply how long these would last and just how effective they are at alleviating financial burdens.

it's a 1 trillion dollar stimulus package and also includes stopping all evictions and foreclosures, extending unemployment benefits and now includes two 1K payments (one for each of the next two months)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

Posted: 20 Mar 2020 02:02
by Stellarator
A-L-E-X wrote:
Stellarator wrote:
midtskogen wrote:
From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Generally speaking, these emergency funds are from governmental contingencies established prior for these situations, or set-up during the onset. Most Western countries are now implementing these. While most do not apply to *every* citizen, a greater concern is simply how long these would last and just how effective they are at alleviating financial burdens.

it's a 1 trillion dollar stimulus package and also includes stopping all evictions and foreclosures, extending unemployment benefits and now includes two 1K payments (one for each of the next two months)

I know. In Canada it's a 82 billion dollar fund. Payments depend on the needs of the citizen. Businesses and large families get larger allocations.