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A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Sep 2020 09:50

Yes and population density near large cities.  About asthma, NYC and LA are particularly vulnerable because of the population density and the high number of people driving vehicles that add polluting NO2 to the air.  I did some good news here- looks like most of Europe is going to stop manufacturing fossil fuel powered vehicles by somewhere between 2030 and 2040?

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/jacinda-ard ... re-elected

https://twitter.com/simonahac/status/13 ... 8600214529

I also included something about New Zealand, as it lies in stark contrast to Australia, who seem to be going backwards thanks to Murdoch's influence.

This is going to be a weird winter, with all the fear over COVID, even a common cold is going to make some people extra careful.
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Sep 2020 12:45

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post About asthma, NYC and LA are particularly vulnerable because of the population density and the high number of people driving vehicles that add polluting NO2 to the air.

I think that's a too simplistic conclusion.  I don't deny that city dwellers might be more vulnerable, but consider also lifestyle.  City dwellers spend more time indoors and breathe all kinds of airborne particles, how can you be sure that that isn't a more important factor?
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

22 Sep 2020 15:11

midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post About asthma, NYC and LA are particularly vulnerable because of the population density and the high number of people driving vehicles that add polluting NO2 to the air.

I think that's a too simplistic conclusion.  I don't deny that city dwellers might be more vulnerable, but consider also lifestyle.  City dwellers spend more time indoors and breathe all kinds of airborne particles, how can you be sure that that isn't a more important factor?

Lifestyle is also a factor, however a few months ago our governor posted a map of where NO2 levels are highest and they are the same areas which have the highest rates of asthma and they seemed to coincide with areas which had a worse outcome of COVID.  And as we know asthma is a major co-morbidity of the pandemic.
https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/link ... ood-asthma
A recent study found that air pollution is the number one reducer of life expectancy (2.0 years) even higher than tobacco (1.5 years).
Air pollutants include ozone, toxic organic aerosols, particulate matter, and heavy metals. The World Health Organization has stated the urban air pollution, which is a mixture of all of the chemicals just described, causes 7 million deaths annually or about 1 in 8 of total deaths.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

23 Sep 2020 22:59

Israel Government approves a total lockdown starting Friday.

Here we go again... a headline that is reminiscent of last spring. Israel is currently suffering their third surge in new cases, and it is the largest and steepest one yet, shooting them past the US and Brazil to become the 10th highest country for coronavirus cases per capita. And so it has come to another nationwide lockdown, at an estimated cost of 10 billion USD if it lasts for three weeks.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Sep 2020 01:02

More information on how SARS-CoV-2 affects the heart. Of particular note is how this distinguishes it from the rest in the family of coronaviruses that infect humans, which primarily affect the respiratory system. And of particular concern is that this no longer appears to be a rare occurrence, but may even comprise the majority of recovered cases.

Image

Image
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Sep 2020 23:37

Watsisname wrote:
Israel Government approves a total lockdown starting Friday.

Here we go again... a headline that is reminiscent of last spring. Israel is currently suffering their third surge in new cases, and it is the largest and steepest one yet, shooting them past the US and Brazil to become the 10th highest country for coronavirus cases per capita. And so it has come to another nationwide lockdown, at an estimated cost of 10 billion USD if it lasts for three weeks.

I see that parts of Europe are also experiencing a surge, Wat.
And anyone who doubts how bad air pollution can be, I spent two weeks in my vacation home in the Poconos and had no health issues whatsoever.  I drove into New York City on Tuesday night and have been sick ever since.  I live a few miles outside the city but trucks frequently come down my road and every time they do I start coughing and cant stop.  Just started feeling better again tonight so I decided to log on here and am headed back to my vacation home tomorrow.  For some reason the air quality is always bad here in the summer and even the early part of fall, it isn't until December that it gets better.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

24 Sep 2020 23:40

Watsisname wrote:
More information on how SARS-CoV-2 affects the heart. Of particular note is how this distinguishes it from the rest in the family of coronaviruses that infect humans, which primarily affect the respiratory system. And of particular concern is that this no longer appears to be a rare occurrence, but may even comprise the majority of recovered cases.

Image

Image

Wat I am also worried about its long term effects on the lungs and how asthma which is made worse here by pollution impacts that.  Have there been any studies done on the lungs?  I have HBP, a nagging cough, and have been feeling dizzy.  Cant wait to get back to the Poconos tomorrow where I always feel better.  
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

25 Sep 2020 03:19

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Have there been any studies done on the lungs?

Lots. Research on this virus and how it invades and affects the body has led to the most rapid explosion of scientific literature in the history of the world. I don't think it's an overstatement. Search on Google Scholar for "SARS-CoV-2 lungs" or "SARS-CoV-2 respiratory" and you'll get tens of thousands of results, many of them actually relevant. But I haven't done a great job of keeping up with this literature, so I'll leave it to you to check it out and decide what is both most credible and most useful for you. Tip: look for more recent literature reviews and highly cited papers.

On a different subject, we're getting to the final stretch of (at least some) vaccine development. But there is still so much uncertainty. In the US, public trust of the federal government's handling of vaccine development is not great, and for very understandable reasons. To try to help with this problem, New York hospitals and universities will be performing their own analyses of any federally approved vaccine to verify their safety and efficacy for themselves. It is a process I will certainly be following closely, and others may want to follow as well. The relevant part of Cuomo's briefing here begins at 16:53.

 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

25 Sep 2020 04:42

Thanks, Wat!  I saw a news clip of that and wondered what you thought of it.  NY has also built a lab exclusively for COVID testing that just became operational.  Results are guaranteed within 24 hr.

Although the rates have been around or under 1% state wide, certain parts of the city have been spiking....near Ocean Pkwy in Brooklyn, around 5% (these are in and near some Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods where people have been congregating because of religious holidays) as well as parts of Queens like Far Rockaway 3-4% (which is less than 5 miles from me.)  There is talk of doing robocalling and going around and telling people to wear masks via bullhorn lol.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

29 Sep 2020 03:50

Sup!
Regarding Corona - from my observation, half of my friends switched to onlne and even developed their businesses. I'm web-designer, so I do not have trouble with finding a job, although I was fired also.
Inspite of having pessimistic thoughts, this thing really makes me optimistic. The case is that American company "Firefly" is making new engine, based on Soviet and American technologies. You can [url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-09-22/firefly-aerospace-and-max-polyakov-want-to-build-smaller-rockets-than-spacex]read more[/url] about the details in this Bloomberg article, but such news really pull me out from this negative media space. Why do you need a Corona if you can just fly to another planets?  :lol:
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

29 Sep 2020 22:55

I think scientists will find an effective vaccine

How Vaccines Work

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Source
 
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

03 Oct 2020 17:36

NY Times "deaths above normal" page updated yesterday. Of all nations for which there are reliable overall data for deaths, it looks like Peru and Bolivia may have been the hardest hit by the virus so far. 

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

10 Oct 2020 13:01

Norwegian authorities estimate that the mortality rate of Covid-19 is 0.31% or three times that of the seasonal flu.  So far 275 deaths have been associated with Covid-19, and more than 90% of the deaths have been in the 70+ age group.  The 2018/19 flu season gave about 1400 deaths by comparison.  This probably means that the social restrictions since March (no large congregations, work-from-home recommendations, quarantines, etc) will make the total deaths in 2020 lower than average.  Currently there are around 150 new confirmed cases daily in Norway and the number is fairly stable. The two largest cities in Norway have been worst hit.  22 people are currently hospitalised in the country for Covid-19, of which 3 receive intensive care.

In short, the effects, or manageability, of Covid-19 seems to correlate pretty strongly with population density.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

11 Oct 2020 20:45

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post In short, the effects, or manageability, of Covid-19 seems to correlate pretty strongly with population density.

It does seem to be true. Using data as of yesterday (from Worldometers) for 50 US states, and plotting against the population density by land area (excluding lakes and rivers), and doing a simple linear regression, I find a positive correlation coefficient of about 0.4115, which for 50 data points has a confidence level of 99.7%.

Image

Plotting the same thing again but as deaths per 1 million residents vs. density yields a significantly stronger trend:
Image

One caveat to this however is that the most population dense regions of the US are mostly the coastal states, especially in the northeast, which were also the first to be impacted due to the location of major transport hubs. So there could be a correlation to density not because of causation, but correlation to where the epidemic strikes first, whereas areas hit later have the benefit of better testing, tracing, and treatments to reduce the number of deaths. That being said, I still do think that population density is likely to be an important factor.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

12 Oct 2020 01:06

Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post One caveat to this however is that the most population dense regions of the US are mostly the coastal states, especially in the northeast, which were also the first to be impacted due to the location of major transport hubs.

Yes, but the correlation between population density and being major transport hubs is no coincidence.

The situation here now is that outbreaks pop up both in the largest cities and elsewhere, but it's harder to contain in the larger cities, whereas elsewhere the outbreaks are quickly killed.

And the key to containment is testing.  It saves lives.  Today's (12th Oct) updated figures show it clearly (non-obvious words: "innlagte" = hospitalised, "andel" = fraction):
x.png
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