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What do you think the mortality rate is in NY taking into account that 1/2 to 2/3 of true cases being missed?
I think it is probably between 0.5% and 1% right now, due to better treatments and health care capacity. (And, of course, it is much higher than 1% in the elderly, and much less for the young.)
Let's compare the official cases and deaths curves across the state of New York. I pull the figures from covidactnow.org
Last spring, new cases across New York peaked at about 9800 per day, while deaths peaked at about 980 per day. That is a case fatality rate (CFR) of 10% -- staggeringly high. But most of that is because true cases were missed, by probably a factor of 10. We were only catching about 1 in every 10 cases, which is evident by the extremely high positivity rate.
Today (or better yet, 3 weeks ago to account for the lag), the rate of new cases was 11,000 per day, and deaths now
are averaging 180 a day. That's a CFR of 1.6%. So if the actual mortality rate is still 1%, then we're catching about 6 out of every 10 true cases. More likely, hospital capacity and care have reduced the mortality rate below 1%, and we're probably catching fewer true cases, maybe 1/2 to 1/3, as you say. If we're catching 1/3, then the infection mortality rate now is about 0.5%.A good way to predict rate of death in 2 to 3 weeks is to take the rate of new cases today and multiply by the CFR, which you get by dividing rate of death today by the rate of new cases 2 to 3 weeks ago.