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Mickey O'Brien
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

31 Aug 2020 15:18

My situation is the same as of Konny Bedelia. There is dispute that masks don't work at all but I believe that if they are at least 1% effective then they are worth wearing, my opinion.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

04 Sep 2020 22:30

Watsisname wrote:
Mr. Abner wrote:
Source of the post Apparently there has been at least three confirmed cases of people who have had COVID-19 and recovered, have now come down with it again. Perhaps a mutated strain already, but certainly not a good sign.

Yes, there had been quite a few unconfirmed reports of reinfection, and now it seems well demonstrated that it does happen, at least sometimes. Apparently it happens not so much because of the virus mutating (although it is, and detecting those mutations was important for proving that it was a new infection, rather than the individual not actually recovering from the first one), but that their immune response wasn't very strong, and the protection it offers weakens over time.

Another thing that sometimes happens with this virus is the inability to fight off the original infection. Usually a person with a mild case recovers within about 2 weeks. Those with severe illness may have it for 2 weeks to a month. But some people (there are thousands, many of whom are otherwise quite healthy) end up "long-haulers", suffering either mild or severe symptoms for several months!

there are also reports of it affecting different systems in the body and the possibility of airborne transmission.
About reinfection it seems that 3 months is the period for which you get immunity.  Would this be the case with a potential vaccine also?  Looks like some vaccine candidates are on the horizon and we should have them before the end of the year.  Russia already seems to have one.

NY is still holding firm with less than 1% infection rates....some are mentioning herd immunity or group immunity as a possibility?  Speaking of reinfection some of the reports indicate that the second infection is asymptomatic (but can still spread the disease.)  There is also the possibility that prior infection with a different coronavirus gives a similar asymptomatic partial immunity?
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

07 Sep 2020 11:51

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post About reinfection it seems that 3 months is the period for which you get immunity

Do you have any data to back up this claim?  This is basically saying that there is no immunity.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Sep 2020 18:51

midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post About reinfection it seems that 3 months is the period for which you get immunity

Do you have any data to back up this claim?  This is basically saying that there is no immunity.

There was a study that came out a few weeks ago that showed there is at least three months of immunity.  That was the lower boundary.  I was looking at the reports of reinfection that have been cropping up around the world and those seem to have started at around 4.5 months.  
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/who-off ... onths.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronav ... gests.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Sep 2020 22:04

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post There was a study that came out a few weeks ago that showed there is at least three months of immunity.  That was the lower boundary.

A lower boundary is something else than a general statement that the immunity is 3 months.  And there are limits how low you can go before you can't separate on on-going infection from a reinfection.  Immunity takes some time to establish.  And a virus can mutate, so there is a gray area for immunity. 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

08 Sep 2020 22:57

midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post There was a study that came out a few weeks ago that showed there is at least three months of immunity.  That was the lower boundary.

A lower boundary is something else than a general statement that the immunity is 3 months.  And there are limits how low you can go before you can't separate on on-going infection from a reinfection.  Immunity takes some time to establish.  And a virus can mutate, so there is a gray area for immunity. 

Right, and the 3 months was also based on the reinfection cases we are now seeing.  At any rate, it seems highly likely that any vaccine we develop for this will have to be a seasonal one.  Some of the reinfection cases we are seeing seem to be from a different strain of the virus.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Sep 2020 03:14

As evidence builds that COVID-19 can damage the heart, doctors are racing to understand it. 

Just another reason that everyone should really try to avoid getting this disease. A growing number of healthy people who recover from even mild cases of COVID-19 are later being found to have lasting problems with the heart.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Sep 2020 09:58

Wat what do you think of all this vaccine being available before the new year talk?  a bit premature?  also we have no way of knowing how long a potential vaccine will be effective.

Breathing problems from wild fires plus this pandemic is a really bad combo (air pollution already was the #1 shortener of life expectancy- 2.0 yrs, ahead of tobacco- 1.5 yrs.)
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Sep 2020 11:32

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Wat what do you think of all this vaccine being available before the new year talk?

Depends what is meant by available. Some number of doses may be available for emergency deployment, I hope for the health care workers and the most vulnerable, but probably not for the general public, let alone the world at large. It may still be about another year for that.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

17 Sep 2020 13:13

Watsisname wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Wat what do you think of all this vaccine being available before the new year talk?

Depends what is meant by available. Some number of doses may be available for emergency deployment, I hope for the health care workers and the most vulnerable, but probably not for the general public, let alone the world at large. It may still be about another year for that.

Yep, that's what the CDC stated also, essential workers and those most vulnerable may have access to it before the end of the year, however for the general public it will probably be Q2/Q3 of 2021.  
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

21 Sep 2020 02:30

I collected some statistics on weekly deaths in Norway to compare 2020 with previous years.  Here's what I got:
► Show Spoiler

The deaths around week 15 was higher than previous years (but much lower than around week 10 in 2018 - perhaps a bad flu year?), but nothing out of the ordinary.  For the rest of the year the deaths for 2020 have been in the lower part of the normal range.  Summed, 2020 has so far fewer deaths than any of the other years up to the same week, but again nothing out of the ordinary.  The drop at the end of the 2020 graphs is likely just an artifact of late reporting.
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

21 Sep 2020 04:57

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post I collected some statistics on weekly deaths in Norway to compare 2020 with previous years.  Here's what I got:

Very nice. Another reason I kind of wish I lived in Norway... 
Your results also look consistent with the analysis by the New York Times:

Image

I've begun to really appreciate this method of following the progression of the pandemic in different countries. All of the data are important to follow with various strengths and weaknesses, but it's remarkable to see the excess of deaths above what is expected in a normal year in some countries, and how well the spikes match up both by time and geographically with the pandemic. The deaths above normal in parts of the US, especially in northeast states early on, were truly staggering. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

21 Sep 2020 06:04

These numbers are more telling than the reported Covid deaths, since the latter depends on how much different countries have tested, and it's also very difficult to tell whether Covid-19 was the actual cause of death.

I bet the Swedish numbers will be discussed.  Sweden did not shut down schools or businesses, and the virus hit care homes badly.  Is that the full explanation, or did they simply fail to do proper testing and contact tracing?  Now the infection numbers are peaking again to Spring levels in many countries, except in Sweden.  But death numbers remain low.  More extensive testing can partly explain that.  Also, now mainly young people get infected.

Despite the high infection numbers and the criticism of Sweden, most countries now do what Sweden did this Spring - avoiding lockdowns.

It's indeed interesting to see how different the graphs are for different countries, but I hesitate to read too much politics into them.  Surely, it matters, and clearly some countries have delayed the onset, but politics might actually matter less than demography and culture.
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A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

21 Sep 2020 07:15

Yes, I really like Norway too (for various reasons- political, low pollution levels, climate, viewing of the Northern Lights, lol.)

Perhaps all these extra precautions not only reduced COVID deaths but will also reduce seasonal flu deaths?

Mid, I also want to see the impact of diet and nutrition and air pollution levels since many of the comorbidities of this disease are factors involved in "lifestyle."

Some of the nations with the most awful politics also had the worst impacts of the disease- US, Brazil, India, Russia, etc.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

21 Sep 2020 14:09

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Perhaps all these extra precautions not only reduced COVID deaths but will also reduce seasonal flu deaths?

Many spent less time outside their home in March and April, and visits to care homes were restricted. so this might have reduced the seasonal flu deaths.  But I can tell you that all these precautions seem to have zero effect on the common cold these days.  My kids go to three different schools, so inevitable it's been brought home.

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Mid, I also want to see the impact of diet and nutrition and air pollution levels since many of the comorbidities of this disease are factors involved in "lifestyle."

Obesity is likely a factor.  Air pollution probably less, at least directly.  Over the past 40 years or so air pollution in cities has improved quite a bit.  I think any correlation would mostly be indirectly.  Like city dwellers having a less active lifestyle.
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