midtskogen wrote:

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post What is going on? 

The North Atlantic Oscillation is going on.  Low pressure near Iceland, high pressure near the Azores.  This makes an expressway of warm and humid air into northern Europe.

Oh boy, this paper turned out to be trash.

Yes but it must be positive, when it is negative we see storminess along the East Coast.  This has been a very boring and uneventful winter here.

"GFS model generates an obscenely strong "extratropical cyclone" over the North Atlantic down to 918 mb (equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane -- a tropical cousin)"

midtskogen wrote:

Source of the post "GFS model generates an obscenely strong "extratropical cyclone" over the North Atlantic down to 918 mb (equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane -- a tropical cousin)"

Very neat.  There's a moment with two separate ~925mb lows spiraling together to make the big one, like the weather equivalent of a black hole merger.

If that prediction holds, merging into a 915 hPa centre, it will be very close to the lowest pressure ever recorded or even estimated in the North Atlantic.

The Fujiwara effect!  Wat, there have been flooding rains all over the nation as you probably know.  Are these extremes part of the climate change effect?  I have seen papers that point towards extremes like this being part of the equation, including extreme swings of ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc.

Also, just for fun, what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post Are these extremes part of the climate change effect?

Instead of asking if certain weather events in a particular year are attributable to climate change, it is better to ask if climate change affects the expected frequency, severity, and distribution of those weather events.  Climate change is known to cause more high precipitation events, but that doesn't mean this particular year is unusually wet because of climate change.

I like this analogy.  Imagine a baseball player just started to take performance enhancing drugs.  In their next game they hit a home run.  Did the drugs cause them to hit that home run?  Or would they have hit that particular home run anyway?  It is not an answerable question.  Instead what we can do is a statistical analysis of many plays to see if there is an effect on batting average.

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post Also, just for fun, what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

No cyclone ever could.  Not because one could never be extreme enough, but because they don't do the right thing.  A cyclone is basically an engine that moves air around -- drawing it in near the surface toward a surface low, and then shunting it upward and outward (high pressure aloft).  But it doesn't concentrate material anywhere, which is what you need to make a black hole.

Is the climate changing towards more extreme swings of the NAO?  It's an interesting question.  Let's collect data for a few centuries, and then I think we will have an answer....

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

To get the most extreme cyclones, you want its centre to be perfect vacuum, and vacuum is as far from a black hole that you can get.

Predictions for "Dennis" currently say 915 hPa for Saturnday evening.  That's extremely rare.

midtskogen wrote:

Is the climate changing towards more extreme swings of the NAO?  It's an interesting question.  Let's collect data for a few centuries, and then I think we will have an answer....

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

To get the most extreme cyclones, you want its centre to be perfect vacuum, and vacuum is as far from a black hole that you can get.

Predictions for "Dennis" currently say 915 hPa for Saturnday evening.  That's extremely rare.

Mid, it looks like the extreme +AO which is +6.3 is controlling the +NAO.  I asked what is causing this extreme +AO and got a variety of responses...... but at least it looks like it has caused more ice growth in the Arctic regions, although it is warm everywhere else.  Looks like Russia might start farms in Siberia sometime in the next few decades if the rate of warming there continues.

midtskogen wrote:

Is the climate changing towards more extreme swings of the NAO?  It's an interesting question.  Let's collect data for a few centuries, and then I think we will have an answer....

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

To get the most extreme cyclones, you want its centre to be perfect vacuum, and vacuum is as far from a black hole that you can get.

Predictions for "Dennis" currently say 915 hPa for Saturnday evening.  That's extremely rare.

ah but what about a spinning black hole?  wouldn't the centrifugal force develop a vacuum near a spinning black hole's center with a ring singularity surrounding it?

Watsisname wrote:

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post Are these extremes part of the climate change effect?

Instead of asking if certain weather events in a particular year are attributable to climate change, it is better to ask if climate change affects the expected frequency, severity, and distribution of those weather events.  Climate change is known to cause more high precipitation events, but that doesn't mean this particular year is unusually wet because of climate change.

I like this analogy.  Imagine a baseball player just started to take performance enhancing drugs.  In their next game they hit a home run.  Did the drugs cause them to hit that home run?  Or would they have hit that particular home run anyway?  It is not an answerable question.  Instead what we can do is a statistical analysis of many plays to see if there is an effect on batting average.

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post Also, just for fun, what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

No cyclone ever could.  Not because one could never be extreme enough, but because they don't do the right thing.  A cyclone is basically an engine that moves air around -- drawing it in near the surface toward a surface low, and then shunting it upward and outward (high pressure aloft).  But it doesn't concentrate material anywhere, which is what you need to make a black hole.

I'm wondering if extreme indices like this February's record setting +AO could have been influenced by climate change.  We have seen an increase in persistent ridging in recent years.  I asked a long range forecaster about positive vs negative NAO, and he told me he did a statistical analysis of both and found that positive NAO occurred 63% of the time, but did not reference climate change in the analysis.
About the cyclone-black hole connection, I was thinking of spinning black holes and a similar geometry to spinning cyclones.  Wouldn't a spinning black hole have a ring singularity with matter spinning around there, and a vacuum near its center?  Trying to picture it and imagine what the centrifugal force would do to the geometry of a spinning black hole.  Space-time should also be warped in a twisty-circular way I would think.

midtskogen wrote:

Is the climate changing towards more extreme swings of the NAO?  It's an interesting question.  Let's collect data for a few centuries, and then I think we will have an answer....

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post what kind of extreme cyclone would it take to actually form a black hole?!

To get the most extreme cyclones, you want its centre to be perfect vacuum, and vacuum is as far from a black hole that you can get.

Predictions for "Dennis" currently say 915 hPa for Saturnday evening.  That's extremely rare.

what kind of winds did Dennis have?  I heard it was the second windiest storm on record for Europe?

A-L-E-X wrote:

Source of the post what kind of winds did Dennis have?

I don't know, but the worst winds were off shore, so whatever was actually measured, was probably not so extreme.