midtskogen wrote:An interesting article on the forecast skills for hurricane Harvey. It's pretty impressive that it was known so much in advance that this could become something serious, though in this case, in hindsight, perhaps the early focus should have been not so much on the wind, but the stalling which caused the incredible rainfall.
A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post I believe the exceptional rainfall totals of this storm and these kinds of storms occurring more often now is linked to climate change
midtskogen wrote:A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post I believe the exceptional rainfall totals of this storm and these kinds of storms occurring more often now is linked to climate change
The main reason for this heavy rainfall was that the storm stalled, so the same areas got all the rain, and this was also near the Gulf enabling more moisture to be fed to the storm. I think it will extremely difficult to prove a link between anthropogenic warming and an increase in such hurricane paths. If there is an increase in hurricane frequency, then also more such paths, but claims of an increased frequency are controversial.
midtskogen wrote:There is no rapid warming in the summer in the Arctic. Winters, however, warmed rapidly in the 1990-2010 period.
If you look at stations with long records, you can certainly find many showing a trend of increasing precipitation over the last decades. While there may be more than one explanation for that, the increases are rarely that dramatic to match the increase in flood damage in seriously hit areas. A greater problem is urbanisation. Not only is absorbing landscape paved, but more property is located in harm's way.
In general, more heat tend to give more precipitation, but it's something that should be manageable. And it still takes a perfect storm to drop 1000-1500 mm of rain in a few days.
midtskogen wrote:The key to deal with so many problems with the environment, poverty and population is abundant, cheap energy. And none of today's technolgies can offer that. Certsinly not the stone age technology that is fossile fuel. I find it hard to see anything other than fusion capable of that. It's still a long way, but the greater problem is that this road has become a taboo even among most scientists.
DoctorOfSpace wrote:A-L-E-X, you won't see poor people building fusion reactors and you definitely won't see nations capable of building them giving them away.