Ultimate space simulation software

 
User avatar
midtskogen
Pioneer
Pioneer
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: 11 Dec 2016
Location: Oslo, Norway
Contact:

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 10:32

Some preliminary stats for hurricane Irma.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
 
A-L-E-X
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 804
Joined: 06 Mar 2017

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 10:35

Watsisname wrote:
I am of the view that people should be able to live wherever they want to live -- ecologically protected areas aside -- but if it is a place that is prone to hurricanes or various other disasters, they should know what they're getting into and plan accordingly, or build accordingly if they want their home to withstand a particular magnitude of event.  There might also be a cost-benefit analysis in there in that it could be more cost effective for a community to build code for one in 30 year events but not one in 100 year events.

I happen to live in a place that will, almost without question, receive a massive earthquake someday and quite possibly in my lifetime.  I have educated myself about the risk and have taken measures to deal with it in case I'm around when it happens.

They should live wherever they want to live outside of protected areas but then they should also take on the responsibility if they are willing to take on the risks.  We're already starting to see the first wave of climate refugees with Native Americans being relocated from an island off the coast of Louisiana (that the fossil fuel industry was drilling there and destroying the local environment is another story- I hate how America coddles these industries and they literally get away with murder, America is WAY too [greedy] capitalist for its own good.)

Mid- I am not saying that people shouldn't live in Florida, I am talking about the immediate coastal areas right next to the water.  As another example, the Navy is relocating its base in Norfolk, Va and moving it 13 miles further inland.  We are not talking about a timescale of 100s of years, but more like 50 years in which it would be underwater because of sealevel rise, and that is a big concern for Florida also (and the rest of our coastline, at least on the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico), so the Navy decided to take action and relocate their base.  Central Florida and areas 20 miles or so from the beaches (or 50 ft above sea level) should certainly be fine- and this should also apply to other coastal areas.
 
User avatar
Watsisname
Science Officer
Science Officer
Posts: 973
Joined: 06 Sep 2016
Location: Bellingham, WA

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 16:43

midtskogen wrote:
Source of the post Some preliminary stats for hurricane Irma.

The third one and the integrated measures stand out as particularly impressive.
 
A-L-E-X
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 804
Joined: 06 Mar 2017

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 20:04

Cuba has reduced her intensity quite a bit.
 
User avatar
Watsisname
Science Officer
Science Officer
Posts: 973
Joined: 06 Sep 2016
Location: Bellingham, WA

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 22:37

Mostly in the sense of its maximum wind speed, but not the areal extent of those winds (which has grown), or the storm surge (which is still very strong).  People fixate on the category of the storm too much. 
 
User avatar
midtskogen
Pioneer
Pioneer
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: 11 Dec 2016
Location: Oslo, Norway
Contact:

Unusual weather

09 Sep 2017 23:47

Curry also points out something unusual: "The surprising thing about this development into a major hurricane was that it developed over relatively cool waters in the Atlantic – 26.5C — the rule of thumb is 28.5C for a major hurricane (and that threshold has been inching higher in recent years)."

EDIT: I guess temperature isn't everything.  A hurricane that hit Norway on New Year's day in 1992 would probably classify as a category 3, despite the cool sea temperatures one can expect off the coast of Norway in mid-winter.  I say probably, because several weather stations either maxed out or were destroyed, and they only measure sustained wind as 10 minute averages, not 1 minute averages as for the hurricane scale.  But what was measured instrumentally was a 10 minute average of 46 m/s gusting to 62 m/s.  It tore many homes apart and flattened whole forests.  It's considered a 200 year event.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
 
User avatar
Watsisname
Science Officer
Science Officer
Posts: 973
Joined: 06 Sep 2016
Location: Bellingham, WA

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 00:35

There are important differences between tropical and extratropical cyclones, though.  An extratropical system gets its energy not from the warm ocean water, but from the temperature differences horizontally in the atmosphere, and they are typically cold-core instead of warm-core.

Added:  In the Pacific Northwest, the last strong example of damage from such a storm was the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, which started out as a tropical typhoon, then moved northeast and transitioned into extratropical before plowing into Vancouver Island.  My mother and uncles were here at the time and remember vividly the destruction it caused.  No reliable measure for the peak sustained winds due to failures, but some reports had gusts from 65 to 80 m/s.

We often get some pretty strong cyclones up here during late autumn or early winter which would be comparable in wind speed to a low grade hurricane, but something like the Columbus Day Storm was truly exceptional.
 
User avatar
midtskogen
Pioneer
Pioneer
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: 11 Dec 2016
Location: Oslo, Norway
Contact:

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 06:34

Some of the hurricanes that hit northern Norway have originally formed as tropical hurricanes. They lose their strength when they move north, but may pick up energy again towards northern Europe, for instance by joining another low pressure system.  Usually, however, storms of tropical origin are associated with excessive precipitation rather than extreme wind, and hurricanes hitting Norway are more commonly formed off Newfoundland.  Since the New Years hurricane of 1992 higher gusts have been measured in Norway due to better instruments, but I think the 46 m/s for a 10 minute average still stands (though 10 minute averages above 40 m/s aren't that uncommon).  Here's what the New Year hurricane looked like:

Image

There's an arctic version of the tropical hurricanes called polar lows.  These form, as you say, when there is a large vertical temperature difference, typically over open ocean and mid-altitude temperatures of around -45C.  They form quickly, stay small, disappear quickly but may be quite violent - usually sustained winds in the 20's m/s, but sometimes well above hurricane speeds of 33 m/s and dumping large amount of snow.  Here's on in the Barentz Sea at about 72N:
Image
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
 
A-L-E-X
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 804
Joined: 06 Mar 2017

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 08:02

Watsisname wrote:
Mostly in the sense of its maximum wind speed, but not the areal extent of those winds (which has grown), or the storm surge (which is still very strong).  People fixate on the category of the storm too much. 

The areal coverage of hurricane force winds has remained about the same (70 miles), it's a large storm but it is nothing like Sandy in size.  Integrated Kinetic Energy I. K. E. is the measure you're talking about, and Irma's I.K.E., is number 4 on the list, which is up there, but by no means not at the top of the list (Sandy is #1).

Mid- unless a storm forms in tropical waters (or sometimes subtropical waters) by definition it can't be a hurricane.  A subtropical storm can become a hurricane, but it has to have a warm core and surrounding thunderstorms concentrated near the center.  The storms you are referring to used to be called neutercanes, but now they just refer to them as coastal lows or extratropical cyclones because their "action" is spread away from the center since they are no longer warm core systems (though they can be hybrids if they combined with another storm that actually used to be a hurricane or tropical storm- see October 1991 Halloween Storm in New England and Long Island).  Typically these storms are much larger in size than hurricanes and they do not weaken once they hit land (since their strength comes from baroclinic processes.)

We also get something called triple phase systems which are when all three northern hemisphere jet streams combine to create a "superstorm"- normally this happens at higher latitudes like the Canadian Maritimes, but once in awhile it happens pretty far south- the last one was the March 1993 superstorm.  Other examples are November 1950 and January 1978.  They have very low pressures (similar to a Cat 3 hurricane) and can even have a storm surge (like March 1993 did over the gulf coast of Florida where it had winds of 112 mph.)  It dumped about 3-4 feet of snow over a wide area of the interior northeast, just a few months after the 3 day December 1992 noreaster had done the same thing.

By the way I am a big proponent of these storms being named, just like hurricanes are (I think the weather channel does it now.)  I know in Europe these kinds of big coastal storms get names!

Hmmm this is interesting 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquak ... c_validity

Scientific validity[edit]
Some recent research has found a correlation between a sudden relative spike in atmospheric temperature 2-5 days before an earthquake. It is speculated that this rise is caused by the movement of ions within the earth's crust, related to an oncoming earthquake. However, the atmospheric changes are caused by the earthquake, rather than the earthquake being caused by any change in atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, this relative temperature change would not cause any single recognizable weather pattern that could be labelled "earthquake weather".[6][7]

At the 2011 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, Shimon Wdowinski announced an apparent temporal connection between tropical cyclones and earthquakes.[8]

In April 2013, a team of seismologists at the Georgia Institute of Technology re-examined data from the 2011 Virginia earthquake using pattern-recognition software and found a correlation between Hurricane Irene's nearby passage and an unexpected rise in the number of aftershocks.[9]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquak ... c_validity

from footnotes this is the original article in Nature

http://www.nature.com/news/hurricane-ma ... ks-1.12839
Hurricane Irene, a powerful storm that ran north along the US East Coast four days after a magnitude-5.8 earthquake rattled Virginia in 2011, may have triggered some of that earthquake’s aftershocks, scientists reported today at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The rate of aftershocks usually decreases with time, says study leader Zhigang Peng, a seismologist at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) in Atlanta. But instead of declining in a normal pattern, the rate of aftershocks following the 23 August 2011, earthquake near Mineral, Virginia, increased sharply as Irene passed by.



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 121016.htm
Source:
University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
Summary:
A groundbreaking study shows that earthquakes, including the recent 2010 temblors in Haiti and Taiwan, may be triggered by tropical cyclones.




https://www.nature.com/news/2009/090610 ... 9.561.html

Now, scientists in the United States and Taiwan have examined slow earthquake events in eastern Taiwan that occurred between 2002 and 2007. They found that 11 out of 20 slow quakes coincided with typhoons — tropical cyclones that originate in the northwest Pacific Ocean. During typhoons, the atmospheric pressure on land is reduced, and at least in the case of eastern Taiwan, this pressure change seems to be enough to unclamp a fault that is under strain and to cause a fault failure.

"The typhoon is nothing but a little hair trigger," says Alan Linde, a geophysicist at the Carnegie Institution of Washington DC. Linde is one of the authors of the study, which is published in Nature this week1. "It requires just the slightest touch of that trigger and the fault will fail."

.....

Undetected quakes?

It is not yet clear whether similar phenomena are occurring elsewhere in the world. In some regions of the Cascadia fault, which reaches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to northern California, tremors associated with small seismic slips — known as 'episodic tremor and slip' (ETS) events — occur approximately every 15 months2. Previous studies have shown that ETS events can be triggered by remote earthquakes and by tidal variations3,4.


Although the Cascadia region is not affected by typhoons, it does experience extensive low-pressure atmospheric systems that could produce small stress changes within the crust. These might be similar to those occurring in eastern Taiwan, says Herb Dragert, a geophysicist with the Geological Survey of Canada in Sidney, British Columbia, who was not involved in the study. To date, no one has investigated whether atmospheric pressure changes could be triggering ETS events, says Dragert. But the similarity between this latest study and previous ones, he notes, is that "very small stress changes can initiate this kind of slow slip and slow earthquake phenomenon".
 
User avatar
midtskogen
Pioneer
Pioneer
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: 11 Dec 2016
Location: Oslo, Norway
Contact:

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 08:56

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Mid- unless a storm forms in tropical waters (or sometimes subtropical waters) by definition it can't be a hurricane.

By "hurricane" I mean number 12 on the Beaufort scale.  In precise language, number 12 is "hurricane force" winds, and what is formed in the tropics are tropical cyclones.
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
 
A-L-E-X
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 804
Joined: 06 Mar 2017

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 09:10

Thanks, Mid. I was looking into the Beaufort scale a few days ago and saw that the scale had been extended to number 17 but I could not find the speeds or descriptions of the higher numbers on the scale, do you by any chance know where those can be found? :)

I agree that hurricane force winds should also be considered "hurricanes"- it was one of the things that caused confusion with Sandy and insurers are reluctant to honor agreements because they don't consider it a "real" hurricane.  Since Sandy, policies have changed at the NHC and they would now consider it to be a hurricane until it makes landfall.
 
User avatar
midtskogen
Pioneer
Pioneer
Topic Author
Posts: 422
Joined: 11 Dec 2016
Location: Oslo, Norway
Contact:

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 10:37

Quote from Wikipedia:
The Beaufort scale was extended in 1946, when forces 13 to 17 were added.[3] However, forces 13 to 17 were intended to apply only to special cases, such as tropical cyclones. Nowadays, the extended scale is only used in Taiwan and mainland China, which are often affected by typhoons. Internationally, WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (2012 edition) defined the Beaufort Scale only up to force 12 and there was no recommendation on the use of the extended scale.

So, numbers above 12 aren't used in the West.  The US uses the Saffir–Simpson scale.  In Norway hurricane force winds are rare, perhaps once or twice a year, and in extreme cases meteorologists simply state the wind observations if the hurricane limit (a 10 minute average of 33 m/s) is an understatement.

Luckily, where I live sustained wind speeds above 15 m/s are very rare.  I've been out in 25 m/s a few times, but nothing more.  Here, in July 2013 we had 24 m/s sustained wind and -3C around 2000m elevation, but near calm and -5C at the summit at 2465m:
► Show Spoiler

And in February this year, 21 m/s and -12C:
► Show Spoiler
NIL DIFFICILE VOLENTI
 
A-L-E-X
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 804
Joined: 06 Mar 2017

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 11:18

midtskogen wrote:
Quote from Wikipedia:
The Beaufort scale was extended in 1946, when forces 13 to 17 were added.[3] However, forces 13 to 17 were intended to apply only to special cases, such as tropical cyclones. Nowadays, the extended scale is only used in Taiwan and mainland China, which are often affected by typhoons. Internationally, WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (2012 edition) defined the Beaufort Scale only up to force 12 and there was no recommendation on the use of the extended scale.

So, numbers above 12 aren't used in the West.  The US uses the Saffir–Simpson scale.  In Norway hurricane force winds are rare, perhaps once or twice a year, and in extreme cases meteorologists simply state the wind observations if the hurricane limit (a 10 minute average of 33 m/s) is an understatement.

Luckily, where I live sustained wind speeds above 15 m/s are very rare.  I've been out in 25 m/s a few times, but nothing more.  Here, in July 2013 we had 24 m/s sustained wind and -3C around 2000m elevation, but near calm and -5C at the summit at 2465m:
► Show Spoiler

And in February this year, 21 m/s and -12C:
► Show Spoiler

Thanks, Mid.  The highest winds I've experienced were in Sandy, which were between 90-100 mph.  We had a black out from it that lasted for 25 hours (my longest black out) and it was cold since it was the end of October and a week later we had an 8" snowstorm!

About extensions to the Beaufort scale, I thought perhaps the E/EF scale for tornadoes is also interesting.  The old F scale actually had a higher scale value, F6, for extreme tornadoes in the 320-640 mph range (640 mph is the speed of sound through air at room temperature.)  It was thought perhaps that the first F5 Moore Oklahoma tornado (I think that was in 1998?) might have been borderline F6, since it was near the very top of the F5 scale (estimated at around 315 mph.)  Then a few years later (I think 2011?) Moore Oklahoma got hit with another F5 (this time using the new scale- so EF5.)  There is actually an X that marks the spot where the 2 tornadoes crossed paths.  The newer scale has lower values than the older scale to ascribe to a similar level of damage.  But I guess they thought it was too much work to just change the values of the old scale and keep it or to go back and use the new scale to describe older tornadoes, since the old F scale is still used for those.  On Labor Day 1998, we had an F2 tornado less than 2 miles from my house, going right down Sunrise Highway and caused major destruction in Lynbrook, NY.  That was the second major severe weather event of the year, as we also had a derecho event on Memorial Day weekend.
 
User avatar
DoctorOfSpace
World Builder
World Builder
Posts: 939
Joined: 22 Aug 2016
Location: SpaceX Mars Colony
Contact:

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 13:58

Image
CPU: Intel Core i7-5820K 4.2GHz 6-Core Processor - RAM: G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 32GB (4 x 8GB) DDR4-2400 - GPU: EVGA GeForce GTX 1080 Ti SC Black Edition
Quando omni flunkus, moritati
 
User avatar
N0B0DY
Space Pilot
Space Pilot
Posts: 107
Joined: 09 Dec 2016

Unusual weather

10 Sep 2017 23:51

I don't know if this is true or fake but it is horrifyingly beautiful (step to 02:18):
► Show Spoiler

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest