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06 Sep 2017 16:36

sadly this will be the worst hurricane season in recorded history....Jose is on the way too and may hit the east cost of U.S
Jose gonna upgraded to catagory 2 hurricane in few hours.
hotter sea water and warming oceans=deadlier and more hurricanes.
the only good thing that can come out of that is that it will cause more awareness to climate change and rising temp of the oceans
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Watsisname
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06 Sep 2017 17:04

It is difficult to determine whether global warming produces more hurricanes / tropical cyclones, whether by modelling or by historical records.  There are not uniform significant trends.  However, the evidence does strongly suggest an increase in the frequency and intensity of the strongest storms, which makes sense given the increase in available energy to power them.  There also appear to be changes in the storm tracks of extratropical cyclones.
 
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Watsisname
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07 Sep 2017 17:34

Speaking of Déjà vu....

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DoctorOfSpace
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07 Sep 2017 17:52

For once it feels nice not living in Florida 
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07 Sep 2017 19:07

Watsisname wrote:
It is difficult to determine whether global warming produces more hurricanes / tropical cyclones, whether by modelling or by historical records.  There are not uniform significant trends.  However, the evidence does strongly suggest an increase in the frequency and intensity of the strongest storms, which makes sense given the increase in available energy to power them.  There also appear to be changes in the storm tracks of extratropical cyclones.

I find hurricanes to be beautiful, an atmospheric version of a black hole made of clouds :P  (I wonder how strong a hurricane would have to get to actually become a black hole?)
But the destruction they cause is awful and catastrophic.  The three that stand out in recent memory (not going back to Katrina in 2005) are Haiyan, Patricia and Irma.  Haiyan 2014 has the record for strongest at landfall 190mph in the Philippines, after a peak of 195.  I volunteered to help after that disaster and the destruction I saw was mind-boggling, the only thing I can imagine to have been worse or on the same level would be the Indonesian Tsunami in 2004.  There was a big cholera outbreak and a major shortage of food and clean water.  Patricia 2016 was like the R136a of hurricanes, because it broke the wind-pressure relationship, hitting a record 215 mph.  It weakened a little prior to landfall and hit an unpopulated area, so it isn't remembered much but that one was the worst on record if you go by wind speed.  Irma 2017 has an amazing record of having been at 185 mph for 36 hours!  The previous record was David that was at that speed or higher for 18 hours- so Irma has maintained that intensity for twice as long as any other Atlantic storm!  Now David peaked at 190 mph and Irma so far has peaked at 185 mph, so 5 mph shy of David's peak intensity- but the 36 hours of 185 mph winds is a far more impressive record.  It was mentioned that she traversed waters that were consistently 1 degree above normal, so that definitely played a part.
Now the other two storms that I contend had effects that may have to do with climate change are Sandy and Harvey.  Sandy's track was due to some very anomalous blocking, and we've seen this kind of anomalous blocking become more prevalent in recent years.  Harvey also stayed over the same general area because it was blocked from moving out.  
 
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08 Sep 2017 10:56

150 + 150 + 100 mph hurricanes left to right  in the Atlantic basin simultaneously- I wonder if we can get three majors simultaneously?
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midtskogen
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08 Sep 2017 11:41

Hurricane Harvey broke a 12 year hurricane drought in the US, a rare opportunity to strengthen and prepare US infrastructure and property. Now the US faces a double hit. Did Obama use that opportunity? Blaming global warming does no good. Indirectly it kills people if it divert focus and action away from adaption. Many homes in Florida wont even survive a mild hurricane that could form in a 10 degree cooler world.
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08 Sep 2017 11:49

yeah i always wonder why they keep building wood houses. its cheaper and takes less time but what is the point if it can get destoryed every few years...
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midtskogen
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08 Sep 2017 12:20

It's possible to build fairly solid houses from wood, on top of a good foundation.  But the use of mobile homes is widespread in Florida.  They have no foundation.  No match for a hurricane, or even a severe storm, unless they're actually moved out of harm's way.
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PlutonianEmpire
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08 Sep 2017 13:19

Watsisname wrote:
Speaking of Déjà vu....

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So I take it the Earth has an official parameter of cycloneOctaves 3? :P
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08 Sep 2017 14:38

midtskogen wrote:
Hurricane Harvey broke a 12 year hurricane drought in the US, a rare opportunity to strengthen and prepare US infrastructure and property. Now the US faces a double hit. Did Obama use that opportunity? Blaming global warming does no good. Indirectly it kills people if it divert focus and action away from adaption.  Many homes in Florida wont even survive a mild hurricane that could form in a 10 degree cooler world.

Blaming global warming because people should not be living in those coastal areas.  The writing is on the wall those places will be permanently underwater within 50 years.  If it was me I would never buy a house in a place like that.
 
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Watsisname
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08 Sep 2017 18:39

I am of the view that people should be able to live wherever they want to live -- ecologically protected areas aside -- but if it is a place that is prone to hurricanes or various other disasters, they should know what they're getting into and plan accordingly, or build accordingly if they want their home to withstand a particular magnitude of event.  There might also be a cost-benefit analysis in there in that it could be more cost effective for a community to build code for one in 30 year events but not one in 100 year events.

I happen to live in a place that will, almost without question, receive a massive earthquake someday and quite possibly in my lifetime.  I have educated myself about the risk and have taken measures to deal with it in case I'm around when it happens.
 
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DoctorOfSpace
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08 Sep 2017 18:48

Watsisname, pfft I just live under the appropriate justification that these things never happen to me and they only happen to other people
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Watsisname
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08 Sep 2017 19:38

DoctorOfSpace, ah, the good old anti-karma vortex.  :P
 
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midtskogen
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09 Sep 2017 00:04

So, it looks like Florida is in for pretty much the worst case scenario.  And it's inevitable several times in a century.  Should people live there?  Well, I think it boils down to the cost balance of preparedness vs rebuilding, and frequency.  If one thinks that Florida should not be inhabited, the same thing could be said of much of the rest of the world.  For instance, pretty much all of Scandinavia is doomed also, as it's covered by ice sheets most of the time.

In Florida I think there are limits for how prepared one can be.  Significant portions of inhabited areas aren't solid land, but so-called "reclaimed land", a misnomer.  Florida is naturally volatile, parts existing just because there is some land-ocean equilibrium, and land reclamation could even disturb that equilibrium and in the long term do the opposite of the intention.

In theory global warming should enable hurricanes to become more powerful, but this is likely not possible to observe with statistical certainty on timescales below centuries.  Still, global warming should be a bit down on a list of concerns for people in Florida, as global climate modification take centuries, while they need to deal with their problems more timely, as they rarely get breaks much longer than a decade.
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