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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

23 Mar 2020 06:24

I'm under total quarantine in a student dorm in poland 
Can't live my room :S
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

25 Mar 2020 13:22

Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post The virus does not have some intrinsic transmission coefficient or mortality rate. Both depend on how we respond to it.

This is important.  When all this is over, the mortality will say less about the virus itself than it will tell how well we are able to protect the vulnerable.  Complete lockdowns and travel restrictions will help, but in an indirect way.  Isolation of the vulnerable is more direct and may be more effective at a much lower cost.  I think the right approach is to be pragmatic about restrictions for low risk people, but very strict when it comes to isolating the vulnerable.
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

26 Mar 2020 00:28

midtskogen wrote:
Watsisname wrote:
Source of the post The virus does not have some intrinsic transmission coefficient or mortality rate. Both depend on how we respond to it.

This is important.  When all this is over, the mortality will say less about the virus itself than it will tell how well we are able to protect the vulnerable.  Complete lockdowns and travel restrictions will help, but in an indirect way.  Isolation of the vulnerable is more direct and may be more effective at a much lower cost.  I think the right approach is to be pragmatic about restrictions for low risk people, but very strict when it comes to isolating the vulnerable.

Right now the complete lockdown has helped (slightly).  We went from 5,200 new cases the other day to 4,700 new cases yesterday.  The hospitalization rate also went down a bit, from doubling every other day to now doubling every 4.7 days.  Still too early to tell if this will continue, and the peak is predicted to be in 21 days here.
Cuomo the governor is right, instead of deploying the ventilators and other equipment simultaneous everywhere and diluting its effectiveness it should first be sent to the hot spots and then we'll pass it on to the next hot spot, etc.  The curve doesn't simultaneously peak everywhere.
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

26 Mar 2020 00:35

Stellarator wrote:
midtskogen wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Generally speaking, these emergency funds are from governmental contingencies established prior for these situations, or set-up during the onset. Most Western countries are now implementing these. While most do not apply to *every* citizen, a greater concern is simply how long these would last and just how effective they are at alleviating financial burdens.

Did Canada just agree to pay its residents $2,000 a month for four months?  Nice.
 
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

26 Mar 2020 03:28

I am so happy with Washington State's response. To the rest of the US, you can do this!

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Graphic by Getreuer on wikipedia
 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

26 Mar 2020 04:35

As mentioned before, it may be worth looking at Norway and Sweden which have chosen different strategies.  Norway chose "the hammer" shutting down just about everything, whilst Sweden chose to keep most things running focusing on isolating the vulnerable.  Sweden in blue and Norway in pink below.  The testing methodology might differ and Sweden has almost twice the population, but it's the shape of the curves that matters most.

I think Tomas Pueyo's "flattening the curve" message in his "Why You Must Act Now" was good, but the "hammer" message in his follow-up is likely to be wrong or at least exaggerated or not very nuanced, i.e. that R must be kept below 1.  We can probably do fine with an R slightly above 1.  The main real effect of the hammer is to make the restrictions that remain after the most severe have been lifted, more acceptable to the public. However, if only the long term restrictions and general caution had been in effect from the beginning, the result would be more or less the same bit not economically. As long as the healthcare system is at top of the problem, the hammer will make more harm than good and an early hammer does not seem to be required to keep things under control.

x.png
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

26 Mar 2020 05:18

"I'm sure the universe is full of intelligent life. It's just been too intelligent to come here."
Arthur C. Clarke, 1996
 
A-L-E-X
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

27 Mar 2020 02:18

midtskogen wrote:
As mentioned before, it may be worth looking at Norway and Sweden which have chosen different strategies.  Norway chose "the hammer" shutting down just about everything, whilst Sweden chose to keep most things running focusing on isolating the vulnerable.  Sweden in blue and Norway in pink below.  The testing methodology might differ and Sweden has almost twice the population, but it's the shape of the curves that matters most.

I think Tomas Pueyo's "flattening the curve" message in his "Why You Must Act Now" was good, but the "hammer" message in his follow-up is likely to be wrong or at least exaggerated or not very nuanced, i.e. that R must be kept below 1.  We can probably do fine with an R slightly above 1.  The main real effect of the hammer is to make the restrictions that remain after the most severe have been lifted, more acceptable to the public. However, if only the long term restrictions and general caution had been in effect from the beginning, the result would be more or less the same bit not economically. As long as the healthcare system is at top of the problem, the hammer will make more harm than good and an early hammer does not seem to be required to keep things under control.

x.png

Sweden's response seems to be more like South Korea's.
Bad news from here, 100 people died yesterday alone, including 13 people at Elmhurst hospital, which is 5 miles from me.  Doctors and nurses are wearing trash bags because they lack protective equipment.  I am not leaving my house at all, except to get food.  Roads are set to be shut down starting tomorrow.  We seem to be getting 5,000 new cases every day and we now have 40,000 cases and 400 deaths.
Developing an antigen test to identify who has resolved (even if asymptomatic) and who may perhaps now have immunity as well as an at home test for the virus (which still has to be sent in to a lab.)
 
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miniluv73
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

27 Mar 2020 07:32

Prime Minister of the UK Boris Johnson has recently tested positive for the coronavirus. He is now self isolating, but he only has mild symptoms. Meanwhile, the USA beats China for most confirmed cases (85,500 positive).
"I'm sure the universe is full of intelligent life. It's just been too intelligent to come here."
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Watsisname
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

27 Mar 2020 17:15

 
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midtskogen
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Thread

28 Mar 2020 02:24

Pretty interesting.  Testing in Iceland, however, indicates that as many as 50% of those infected have no or hardly any symptoms.  If the models had been run in such a configuration, I wonder how the results would change.  And one thing these simulations miss is the mortality distribution across the population.  If a disease is perfectly harmless for people under, say, 70, and mortality is very high for those above, then, if the disease has already spread, effective isolation of the vulnerable while the rest quickly become "recovered" would be very effective.

An interesting point was also that travel restrictions at this point may have limited effect.  But the effect of avoiding hubs is large and public transport acts like a hub.  For international air travel an hour or more in lines through immigration and emigration is not uncommon (and probably a far greater risk for getting infected than during the flight itself), and ironically, during times of epidemics, border control is much stricter and these lines become worse.
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