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A-L-E-X
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05 Sep 2017 05:23

Yes I was reading about this!  Which part of the Earth will be directly impacted?  Space scientists I was talking to are excited about a possible Carrington Event on the way, after a long period of quiet, the sun has been getting much more active lately!

BTW when will SE be able to model aurora and solar storms in real time?  Like I want SE to use the internet to upload data to show us aurora when they are actually happening!
 
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05 Sep 2017 05:47

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Which part of the Earth will be directly impacted?

It will depend on when it arrives, but in terms of sparking aurora it doesn't matter much because the effects last a while.

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Space scientists I was talking to are excited about a possible Carrington Event on the way


Which scientists?
 
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05 Sep 2017 05:50

Dr. Tamitha Skov had it on her feed, she referenced the 1857 event.
 
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05 Sep 2017 17:56

SWPC is currently predicting a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm Wednesday through Thursday, with Kp index of 7, and aurora perhaps being visible from here in Washington.  For reference, one expects about 200 events of this intensity in a typical 11-year solar cycle.  The expectation for a G5 (extreme) storm is about 4 per cycle, with aurora reaching as far south as Florida.

Unfortunately, in addition to fighting moonlight, I'm also under the wildfire smoke again, and it doesn't look like it's going to be going anywhere anytime soon. =(  
 
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05 Sep 2017 21:05

Watsisname wrote:
SWPC is currently predicting a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm Wednesday through Thursday, with Kp index of 7, and aurora perhaps being visible from here in Washington.  For reference, one expects about 200 events of this intensity in a typical 11-year solar cycle.  The expectation for a G5 (extreme) storm is about 4 per cycle, with aurora reaching as far south as Florida.

Unfortunately, in addition to fighting moonlight, I'm also under the wildfire smoke again, and it doesn't look like it's going to be going anywhere anytime soon. =(  

Hmmm is this going to be as strong as the one right after the eclipse, which was visible from Chicago?  That's the furthest south I've seen one of these in awhile. Washington doesn't count- you guys are right next to Canada so I expect you get to see them at least once a month (provided you don't live near some polluted city, which is the scourge of all night time observers everywhere.)
 
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midtskogen
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05 Sep 2017 21:51

The Carrington event was in 1859. not 1857.  If this event had been similar, we would already have felt it. 
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Watsisname
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06 Sep 2017 00:01

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Washington doesn't count- you guys are right next to Canada so I expect you get to see them at least once a month

Not really.  You have to use the geomagnetic latitude.  Seattle is pretty much equivalent to Chicago.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/tips-viewing-aurora

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06 Sep 2017 01:25

Hmmm I wonder whats going to happen when the poles switch? I think it's in the process of happening already- some airports have already reported issues with navigation systems.

Mid- I looked back at the post and she did mention 1859, I'm not good with years :P and mentioned that Region 2673 is where the comparison is coming from.  Here they are:-

Agreed! Region 2673 looks like this kind of magnetic mixing. If this is what happened in the 1859 #solar cycle we may be in for big events!

After firing a M5.5-flare, launching a #solarstorm & #radiation storm, region 2673 is still a big flare player. NOAA ups X-flare risk to 25%
 
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06 Sep 2017 01:33

Blimey! I had to go to northern UK these days (for my birthday) but I postponed the journey to this winter, I'm so sad I didn't booked the flight...

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06 Sep 2017 06:11

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Agreed! Region 2673 looks like this kind of magnetic mixing. If this is what happened in the 1859 #solar cycle we may be in for big events!

What I read from that is they don't know how this sunspot's magnetic configuration compares to what happened in 1859, and expectations that it could lead to a Carrington level event is pure speculation at best and a dangerous way to communicate science to the public at worst.

This complexity of sunspot group, or intensity of CME, is not uncommon in a typical solar cycle.  Sure, it could trigger a storm of that magnitude, but it isn't likely, and we don't see any compelling evidence that it will.  I'd compare it to expecting a super-eruption of Yellowstone.  It'll probably happen again eventually, and it is wise to understand and be prepared for it, but you also shouldn't expect it to erupt tomorrow just because it had some more tremors today.
 
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06 Sep 2017 06:38

There was an X9.3 flare around 12UT today.
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06 Sep 2017 08:55

Seems unlikely I will see anything, but I will definitely check. 
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A-L-E-X
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06 Sep 2017 11:35

Watsisname wrote:
A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Agreed! Region 2673 looks like this kind of magnetic mixing. If this is what happened in the 1859 #solar cycle we may be in for big events!

What I read from that is they don't know how this sunspot's magnetic configuration compares to what happened in 1859, and expectations that it could lead to a Carrington level event is pure speculation at best and a dangerous way to communicate science to the public at worst.

This complexity of sunspot group, or intensity of CME, is not uncommon in a typical solar cycle.  Sure, it could trigger a storm of that magnitude, but it isn't likely, and we don't see any compelling evidence that it will.  I'd compare it to expecting a super-eruption of Yellowstone.  It'll probably happen again eventually, and it is wise to understand and be prepared for it, but you also shouldn't expect it to erupt tomorrow just because it had some more tremors today.

Was the Carrington event really that bad?  It might have been the worst in modern times but I don't think it's anywhere close to what a supervolcano would do (maybe somewhere between Krakatoa and Tambora?)  I read that the greatest flare we know about happened somewhere around year 200 or 400 (don't remember the exact year) and it was so bad that there are paintings in which the sun is depicted as being red and there is tree ring evidence from around the world of it.  The Carrington event doesn't seem like it was anywhere near what happened back in ancient times.
Besides, we've been in a really quiet time for the sun the last few years, months went by without a sunspot before this recent activity popped back up.

Well science communication is a huge problem when you get articles like this- it makes me feel like science shouldn't even be communicated to the public, it's more damaging to see hype like this than it is to get no information at all.

http://nypost.com/2014/07/24/solar-flar ... -ago-nasa/

Two years ago, we were all going about our daily business, blissfully unaware that our planet almost plunged into global catastrophe.
A recent revelation by NASA explains how on July 23, 2012, Earth had a near miss with a solar flare, or coronal mass ejection (CME), from the most powerful storm on the sun in over 150 years, but nobody decided to mention it.
Err, what? Well, that’s a sobering bit of news.
“If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” says Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado.
We managed to just avoid the event through lucky timing as the sun’s aim narrowly turned away from Earth. Had it occurred a week earlier, when it waspointing at us, the result could have been frighteningly different.
“I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did,” says Baker. “If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.”
 
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06 Sep 2017 11:56

A-L-E-X wrote:
Source of the post Was the Carrington event really that bad?

There are studies which try to answer what would happen if we had a Carrington event today.  I think the effects will vary a lot.  For instance, the US electricity grid has been found particularly vulnerable and it may take months to repair completely.  Other countries may be back to normal after a couple of days.  We might lose some satellites affecting weather forecasts, GPS, communication and science.  But most systems have some redundancy, communication for instance, so I think much will be back to a working state quickly, but such an even will definitely be expensive because of the global scale.
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06 Sep 2017 12:00

The strongest solar storm of the last 11,000 years was possibly 774/775. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80 ... n-14_spike

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