A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Which part of the Earth will be directly impacted?
A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Space scientists I was talking to are excited about a possible Carrington Event on the way
Watsisname wrote:SWPC is currently predicting a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm Wednesday through Thursday, with Kp index of 7, and aurora perhaps being visible from here in Washington. For reference, one expects about 200 events of this intensity in a typical 11-year solar cycle. The expectation for a G5 (extreme) storm is about 4 per cycle, with aurora reaching as far south as Florida.
Unfortunately, in addition to fighting moonlight, I'm also under the wildfire smoke again, and it doesn't look like it's going to be going anywhere anytime soon. =(
A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Washington doesn't count- you guys are right next to Canada so I expect you get to see them at least once a month
A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Agreed! Region 2673 looks like this kind of magnetic mixing. If this is what happened in the 1859 #solar cycle we may be in for big events!
Watsisname wrote:A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Agreed! Region 2673 looks like this kind of magnetic mixing. If this is what happened in the 1859 #solar cycle we may be in for big events!
What I read from that is they don't know how this sunspot's magnetic configuration compares to what happened in 1859, and expectations that it could lead to a Carrington level event is pure speculation at best and a dangerous way to communicate science to the public at worst.
This complexity of sunspot group, or intensity of CME, is not uncommon in a typical solar cycle. Sure, it could trigger a storm of that magnitude, but it isn't likely, and we don't see any compelling evidence that it will. I'd compare it to expecting a super-eruption of Yellowstone. It'll probably happen again eventually, and it is wise to understand and be prepared for it, but you also shouldn't expect it to erupt tomorrow just because it had some more tremors today.
A-L-E-X wrote:Source of the post Was the Carrington event really that bad?