Ultimate space simulation software

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by midtskogen
04 Jan 2017 01:59
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1024
Views: 194609

Totally off-topic thread

More compelling because it's more complex?  That sounds like a rejection of Occam's razor. There are, of course, real skills involved here, mainly being able to measure the global temperature and to compute indices for things like the ENSO.  2016 was special because of a very strong el Niño, which a...
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 13:33
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1024
Views: 194609

Totally off-topic thread

year  obs. pred.  obs.   pred. 2000 0.288 0.412 2001 0.422 0.471 warmer warmer 2002 0.482 0.469 warmer warmer 2003 0.491 0.553  flat  warmer 2004 0.440 0.502 colder  flat 2005 0.460 0.513  flat  warmer 2006 0.452 0.454  flat   flat 2007 0.401 0.545 colder  flat 2008 0.310 0.372 colder  flat 2009 0....
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 13:00
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 452
Views: 74322

Astrophotography

The video is pretty unspectacular, though. :)
 http://norskmeteornettverk.no/meteor/20170103/161200/voksenlia/cam2/voksenlia-20170103161201-gnomonic.mp4

Here's another Quadrantid this evening, much prettier:
image.jpg
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 11:11
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 452
Views: 74322

Astrophotography

The Quandrantids have just peaked.  The meteors have been visible for several days, but just a few.  Only today do they peak for a few hours.  I just got an unusual shot of a Quadrantid.  It's a long exposure, but the meteor is just a dot.  That means it was headed straight for the camera.  Which gi...
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 04:43
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1024
Views: 194609

Totally off-topic thread

Thanks for that link.  It quickly highlights my concern.  Here's the data: x.png Converting this back to numbers: year obs. pred. 2000 0.288 0.412 2001 0.422 0.471 2002 0.482 0.469 2003 0.491 0.553 2004 0.440 0.502 2005 0.460 0.513 2006 0.452 0.454 2007 0.401 0.545 2008 0.310 0.372 2009 0.442 0.448 ...
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 22:18
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1024
Views: 194609

Totally off-topic thread

A year isn't that much longer than a season, and of course it's easier to predict global temperature than local if the accepted absolute error is the same (like ±0.5C), since the local variability is much higher.  I'm very sceptical towards publishing seasonal forecasts and calling it science when t...
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 12:47
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1024
Views: 194609

Totally off-topic thread

Is that forecast credible?  The UK Met Office issues seasonal forecasts, and their success rate is roughly the same as amateurs depending on folklore.
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 12:01
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 452
Views: 74322

Astrophotography

There's a nice conjunction of Mars, the Moon and Venus tonight.  And over here a pretty sunset to top it.
img_1643.jpg
by midtskogen
01 Jan 2017 14:07
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 361
Views: 81800

Unusual weather

December at Longyear airport was the 73rd consecutive month with a temperature above the normal (defined as the 1961-1990 averages).  That's a pretty long "heatwave".  And it shows that the climate in the Arctic is quite different from the rest of the world.
by midtskogen
01 Jan 2017 01:24
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 361
Views: 81800

Unusual weather

Let's continue the thread in the old forum It's been a warm year in the Arctic.  Longyear airport at 78N managed to average +0.1C for the year, which I believe is the first time a yearly average above 0C has been recorded in Spitsbergen.  Only a few days in 2016 had lows below the normal temperature...
by midtskogen
29 Dec 2016 12:45
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 417
Views: 97928

Show off your work

Bloody sunset.
by midtskogen
16 Dec 2016 23:45
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Asteroids, meteors, and meteorites
Replies: 35
Views: 8461

Asteroids, meteors, and meteorites

My intuition tells me that this is complex and that the heat plays a major role her, but whether a doubling of speed can be exchanged for a quadrupling of mass at this scale with little difference in effect, I don't know.  Yes, the water jet is terrifying. On a much smaller scale, I made a video sum...
by midtskogen
16 Dec 2016 03:08
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Asteroids, meteors, and meteorites
Replies: 35
Views: 8461

Asteroids, meteors, and meteorites

Let's continue the thread in the old forum.

A new asteroid impact simulation
But it's odd that the video does not mention another, extremely important factor: impact speed, which is much more important than size for the total energy involved, unless the airburst scenario really is higher speed.
by midtskogen
14 Dec 2016 04:13
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Science and Astronomy Questions
Replies: 1641
Views: 256856

Science and Astronomy Questions

Fun fact:  If you stand on top of the great pyramid of Giza, the gravitational force on you due to the Pyramid is equal to the gravitational force on you due to the Moon. Isn't that surprising?  Imagine we remove Earth, so you float in space and have this huge pyramid blocking almost your entire vi...