Ultimate space simulation software

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by midtskogen
09 Jan 2017 04:25
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 407
Views: 94885

Show off your work

My northermost is 79[color=#ffffff]°12'N (11°57'E).  We had planned to pass[color=#ffffff] 80° north of Spitsbergen, but ice blocked the north coast that summer.  This was in the 90's when the ice conditions were worse than today (even today in January there's open water to [color=#ffffff]82°) . Pe...
by midtskogen
09 Jan 2017 01:30
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 407
Views: 94885

Show off your work

The sun is 6 degrees above the horizon at noon in mid-winter here, and I don't really perceive the light as yellow, but a digital camera will disagree objectively.  The only thing special about mid-winter noon is that if there's a thick cloud cover, then the day never feels fully bright.  This is pa...
by midtskogen
08 Jan 2017 11:45
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 407
Views: 94885

Show off your work

Winter sunsets last a long time at high latitudes.  I think this red sunset might have been caused by temperature inversion, trapping cold, misty air near the ground, and at high altitudes the sun passes through that layer just before it sets.
by midtskogen
08 Jan 2017 10:18
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Show off your work
Replies: 407
Views: 94885

Show off your work

Inversion and another sunset.


solnedgang-20170108.jpg
by midtskogen
08 Jan 2017 08:03
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Science and Astronomy Videos
Replies: 458
Views: 79127

Science and Astronomy Videos

Speech recognition is also fascinating, but proof reading is advisable before publishing.
► Show Spoiler
by midtskogen
05 Jan 2017 00:45
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

So did I, in particular the naive vs managed fund analogy. :)
by midtskogen
04 Jan 2017 01:59
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

More compelling because it's more complex?  That sounds like a rejection of Occam's razor. There are, of course, real skills involved here, mainly being able to measure the global temperature and to compute indices for things like the ENSO.  2016 was special because of a very strong el Niño, which a...
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 13:33
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

year  obs. pred.  obs.   pred. 2000 0.288 0.412 2001 0.422 0.471 warmer warmer 2002 0.482 0.469 warmer warmer 2003 0.491 0.553  flat  warmer 2004 0.440 0.502 colder  flat 2005 0.460 0.513  flat  warmer 2006 0.452 0.454  flat   flat 2007 0.401 0.545 colder  flat 2008 0.310 0.372 colder  flat 2009 0....
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 13:00
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 451
Views: 71593

Astrophotography

The video is pretty unspectacular, though. :)
 http://norskmeteornettverk.no/meteor/20170103/161200/voksenlia/cam2/voksenlia-20170103161201-gnomonic.mp4

Here's another Quadrantid this evening, much prettier:
image.jpg
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 11:11
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 451
Views: 71593

Astrophotography

The Quandrantids have just peaked.  The meteors have been visible for several days, but just a few.  Only today do they peak for a few hours.  I just got an unusual shot of a Quadrantid.  It's a long exposure, but the meteor is just a dot.  That means it was headed straight for the camera.  Which gi...
by midtskogen
03 Jan 2017 04:43
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

Thanks for that link.  It quickly highlights my concern.  Here's the data: x.png Converting this back to numbers: year obs. pred. 2000 0.288 0.412 2001 0.422 0.471 2002 0.482 0.469 2003 0.491 0.553 2004 0.440 0.502 2005 0.460 0.513 2006 0.452 0.454 2007 0.401 0.545 2008 0.310 0.372 2009 0.442 0.448 ...
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 22:18
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

A year isn't that much longer than a season, and of course it's easier to predict global temperature than local if the accepted absolute error is the same (like ±0.5C), since the local variability is much higher.  I'm very sceptical towards publishing seasonal forecasts and calling it science when t...
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 12:47
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Totally off-topic thread
Replies: 1014
Views: 189438

Totally off-topic thread

Is that forecast credible?  The UK Met Office issues seasonal forecasts, and their success rate is roughly the same as amateurs depending on folklore.
by midtskogen
02 Jan 2017 12:01
Forum: Science and Astronomy Discussions
Topic: Astrophotography
Replies: 451
Views: 71593

Astrophotography

There's a nice conjunction of Mars, the Moon and Venus tonight.  And over here a pretty sunset to top it.
img_1643.jpg
by midtskogen
01 Jan 2017 14:07
Forum: Off-topic Discussions
Topic: Unusual weather
Replies: 350
Views: 78888

Unusual weather

December at Longyear airport was the 73rd consecutive month with a temperature above the normal (defined as the 1961-1990 averages).  That's a pretty long "heatwave".  And it shows that the climate in the Arctic is quite different from the rest of the world.