33232 Why is this being called SARS 2? The virus SARS-CoV gave the disease SARS in the early 2000's.  Now the virus SARS-CoV-2 gives the disease COVID-19.  I guess it could just as well have been named SARS 2.  SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are related viruses, but I don't know in what exact way.  SARS i...

33225 If about 50% of cases are nearly asymptomatic and not known, then measures to slow the spread by identifying and quarantining infected by symptoms are dramatically less effective (see for example the simulation with communities at 50% quarantine at 8:35 -- it's only barely better than if no a...

Pretty interesting.  Testing in Iceland, however, indicates that as many as 50% of those infected have no or hardly any symptoms.  If the models had been run in such a configuration, I wonder how the results would change.  And one thing these simulations miss is the mortality distribution across the...

As mentioned before, it may be worth looking at Norway and Sweden which have chosen different strategies.  Norway chose "the hammer" shutting down just about everything, whilst Sweden chose to keep most things running focusing on isolating the vulnerable.  Sweden in blue and Norway in pink...

33137 The virus does not have some intrinsic transmission coefficient or mortality rate. Both depend on how we respond to it. This is important.  When all this is over, the mortality will say less about the virus itself than it will tell how well we are able to protect the vulnerable.  Complete loc...

33142 The economy doesn't matter at this point. Remember that there is a percentage of the population that is alive thanks to a well economically developed society, and we can't allow that to change.  We need to be pragmatic.  We want to avoid triage in healthcare, and trade that for temporary tria...

33134 This can be a very nasty virus. "Can" is also an important word. If treated, mortality does seem fairly low, and I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches that of flu when all the numbers are in.  If the healthcare system is overwhelmed, however, there can be little doubt now that it...

A random photo taken exactly 5 years ago while getting ready for the total eclipse.  I've seen three total eclipses in my life, and this was the best by far.



The video that I made.

1600 infected in Norway, 6 dead.  Average age of the fatalities: 89 years.  An Italian study reports that the median age for the fatalities in Italy is 79.5 for men and 83.7 for women.  

A-L-E-X wrote:

Qr Bbpost give everyone $1,000 to stimulate the economy after this horror ends. A $1 trillion stimulus package

From where?  Tax increases?  Borrow from China?  Banknote printing?

Interestingly, Norway went for a near complete lockdown, whereas Sweden has chosen a different path with limited restrictions, schools etc remain open, not unlike the UK.  Who gets it right? In Norway the national health authorities did not recommend closing schools and borders.  It was more a polit...

A-L-E-X wrote:

Qr Bbpost The drawback though (like we see with dolphins, which are highly evolved), is no evolution of hands or an opposable thumb, which seems to be critical in making and using tools.

Octopuses have highly usable "limbs".  And some are pretty intelligent as well.

I think the following actions make sense: ⋅ Work from home policies for everyone who can do it. ⋅ Switch to remote teaching in universities, high schools and schools for pupils aged 12+. ⋅ Strict isolation policies for hospitals and homes for the elders. ⋅ Act...

There is a need to explain the 0.7% death rate of South Korea versus the 7% death rate in Italy.  Two factors are important for the latter case: Who get tested, and hospital capacity. Clearly, the testing rate influences the numbers.  If mainly people on their deathbed get tested, you'll get a very ...

What are your thoughts about the mortality rate?  I think this is a big issue.  If it's low, towards that of regular flu, it seems clear that what the world is really facing is a panic epidemic spread by media.  If the mortality is above 5% as some data might suggest, then clearly the world must not...